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Anshel Pfeffer

22 Dec, 10 tweets, 3 min read

@haaretzcom

THREAD Last night’s vote against delaying the budget deadline means nothing can stop the Knesset dissolving @ midnight. Election on 23.3. I explained in @haaretzcom last month why Netanyahu doesn’t want a March election. Too many factors beyond his control
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

A March election means the campaign will be dominated by 3 events beyond Netanyahu’s control: 1. 3rd wave of covid crashing down on Israel before vaccines have an impact 2. From January 20, a much less friendly administration in the US 3. Early February his bribery trial resumes

Netanyahu’s biggest advantage is that he’s going in to the election serving PM with control over the critical finance and health ministries. Gantz and his B&W ministers will remain in office but have much less power as discredited members of a zombie party
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

Netanyahu’s campaign is going to have 2 themes: Only I could have brought millions of vaccines early to Israel (expect another show when he gets his 2nd jab) and my diplomacy brought peace with Arab states (he’s desperate to visit the UAE during the campaign). No-one else could.

Netanyahu’s biggest problem going in to the election, he won’t have Gantz to kick around any more and brand “weak left” but much more experienced right-wing challengers determined to take him out. Sa’ar, Bennett, Lieberman. Sa’ar tried and failed last year
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

The next month & a half will be dominated by intra-party maneuvers as the candidates’ slates are prepared. Will Likud hold primaries? Will B&W implode or merge? Will Bennett get rid of Smotrich? Who will Labor merge with to survive? Will Lapid and Yaalon run together? Joint list?

Will new stars join the political show for the election? Tel Aviv Mayor Huldai said a few months ago that he will. Former IDF Chief Gadi Eisenkot is still a hot name. But is there room for a new party & would either of them join an existing party as no.2?
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

There are some other interesting questions about this election. Will Netanyahu’s last political allies, the ultra-Orthodox parties, end up harming him at the polls by their refusal to abide by the covid-19 restrictions?
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

Most of the election action will be on the right. What will happen in the left-wing wilderness? Can Labor survive? Will Meretz seriously try to include Arab candidates? Will the Joint List remain joined despite the Islamists’ cooperation with Netanyahu?
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

Last tweet. New Covid-19 infections shot up yesterday to 3,594. This election campaign will almost certainly include another Coronavirus lockdown. Which will be bad for Netanyahu’s popularity but he’ll also tailor the lockdown’s restrictions and timing for his political purposes.

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More from @AnshelPfeffer

Anshel Pfeffer

@AnshelPfeffer

8 Dec

Gideon Saar, ex-minister, Likud MK, a former cabinet secretary of Netanyahu’s and the only Likudnik to challenge him in recent years, is expected to announce tonight he’s forming a new right-wing party.

Saar came first three times in Likud’s primaries for the Knesset slate but lost to Netanyahu last year in the leadership primary winning only 27.5 percent of the vote. Nevertheless, his departure is a major blow, and a significant addition to the right-wing’s anti-Netanyahu bloc.

If early elections are held, a Saar-led party would weaken Likud and increase the likelihood of someone other than Netanyahu forming the next government. It could also, conceivably, increase the pretty slim chances of an alternative coalition being formed without another election

Read 8 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer

@AnshelPfeffer

12 Jul

@haaretzcom

So why has Israel lost control of Covid-19? The simple reasons are it emerged too hastily from lockdown, without a clear exit strategy and without a contact-tracing system. But why was that allowed to happen? I tried to answer in ⁦@haaretzcom⁩ THREAD haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

The most simple thing whenever anything goes wrong in Israel is to blame Netanyahu. But in this case, it does start and end with him. He made 2 good decisions at the beginning of the pandemic, to close borders and shut down the country. But he dropped the ball from then on. Why?

Netanyahu has many political and leadership qualities, but he’s no manager. And he’s bored by social issues he doesn’t see as part of his duties as leader. Netanyahu has literally been astonished by what he’s discovered in the health and social benefits systems in this crisis.

Read 19 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer

@AnshelPfeffer

29 Mar

I spent a heart-breaking Shabbat afternoon in Bnei Brak and Sunday morning in Mea Shearim and Geula. I’ve spent 23 years writing about the ultra-Orthodox community and I doubt it will ever be the same after the rabbis’ terrible response to coronavirus
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

The major outbreaks of #Covid_19 in Haredi neighborhoods will soon almost certainly lead to a surge of more serious cases and pressure on the ICU units creating tension between the ultra-Orthodox and other sectors of Israeli society who have been isolating properly for weeks now.

No one will forget Rabbi Chaim Kanievsky who today ordered the ultra-Orthodox close all synagogues and pray alone, 2 weeks earlier insisted that all their schools continue teaching as usual, while the rest of Israeli schools closed down. A massive blow to rabbinical authority.

Read 10 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer

@AnshelPfeffer

18 Mar

A majority of opposition members of Knesset are now barricaded in the Israeli parliament (socially distanced for each other) demanding the outgoing speaker (Likud) allow voting on a new speaker and committees which will reflect that Likud and its allies are the minority.

Speaker Edelstein claims that a vote now will jeopardize national-unity talks between Likud and B&W but it's B&W which is demanding the vote. Likud Whip Zohar refuses to empanel new committees because of coronavirus concerns but has rejected suggestions for video-conferencing.

Netanyahu's stooges are using the coronavirus crisis to ignore the results of the election which took place only 2 weeks ago and to prevent the new Knesset from executing its parliamentary oversight duties.

Read 24 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer

@AnshelPfeffer

28 Jan

A US President facing impeachment and an Israeli Prime Minister indicted for corruption, leading an interim minority government, are about to announce a plan to solve the conflict with the Palestinians, without any Palestinian present. Unbelievable farce.

Interesting that Trump begins by giving double billing to both Netanyahu and Gantz, “a man trying very hard to become the prime minister of Israel in the longest election in history.” Netanyahu smiling, but he wouldn’t have liked that.

Trump now raphsodizing about his meeting with Abbas in Bethlehem in 2017. It actually consisted of a short shouting-session in which Trump berated Abbas. He doesn’t mention that since August 2017, there’s been no dialog whatsoever between the administration and the Palestinians.

Read 17 tweets

Anshel Pfeffer

@AnshelPfeffer

14 Jan

24 hours to deadline for filing candidates lists for March 2 election and political neophyte Rafi Peretz now isolated with a shell of a party which was once Jewish Home and his pact to run with neo-Kahanist Ben Gvir. There’s a good chance they won’t pass the electoral threshold >

Netanyahu now petrified Jewish Home-Jewish Power will fail to enter next Knesset, costing his bloc 1-2 seats and making a majority even less likely. A wonderful irony since it’s all a result of his endless machinations to force the religious-right to join with the Neo-Kahanists >

Netanyahu will spend next 24 hours pressuring Bennett to agree to Peretz+Ben Gvir joining his religious-right list. He’s even threatening to fire Bennett from MOD if he refuses. Bennett so far isn’t budging. He doesn’t want to be tainted with Neo-Kahanism and this is Bibi’s mess>

Read 9 tweets

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