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Alex Profile picture
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22 Dec, 5 tweets, 1 min read
$BTC short-term views

- Grayscale closed subscriptions temporarily
- Futures basis sky high at various tenors
- December expiry this week: fireworks?
- IV very high

Thinking volatile pause in the trend ahead. 25K-19.5K all in play. Careful loading short-term bullets too soon.
Broader market we have the UK virus panic and the fiscal package pulling in opposite ways. Short-term direction is just as unclear.
$BTC implied volatility shows how the market is bearish short-term, focusing on downside protection, yet extraordinarily bullish beyond then. Smart folk these options traders.
For a sustained move higher likely need leverage and vols to first come down some more.
I was hoping the Sunday dump would make levered longs puke - alas, too many are still out there, defying gravity.

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Alex Profile picture
18 Dec
Most traders unfortunately do poorly. Too much leverage. Stops too tight. Fear of lossing. Trading against the trend. Too many edgeless tools. Guru fixation. Trade like retail and will lose like retail.
Things I'd recommend to traders until becoming consistently profitable:

- eliminate leverage
- use only very wide stops
- reduce size accordingly
- never go all in
- focus on 1-4 assets
- eliminate indicators aside of volume and maybe 1/2 MAs
- trade only with the larger trend
Could make that list longer, but that's the core.

I am certain whoever does that will do well for the following few years, as odds are markets will trend higher.

A great thing about crypto in particular is that being so volatile, one can do extremely well even without leverage.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Profile picture
16 Dec
This is how noobs do it:

#1 wait for bitcoin price to go up a lot
#2 feel FOMO
#3 look at underperforming assets for something to buy
#4 ignore that price is going down for a reason
#5 buy some garbage
#6 then bitcoin corrects and garbage drops even more

Always the same.
This is how pros do it:

#1 identify winners
#2 wait patiently for a correction
#3 buy the winners whenever a correction comes
#4 weather the storm
#5 see prices go up and profit

Not difficult. Just need to be patient and wait for the opportunities.
That applies to technical trading whenever the trader has no fundamental/informational edge. In those cases, best to focus on buying the winners on corrections and exercise patience. Corrections always come. Regularly.
Read 5 tweets
Alex Profile picture
15 Dec
If you think long-only traditional asset managers are buying bitcoin to dump it after a short period of time

you deserve to be poor.

Keep on drawing lines in your charts, and enjoy the ramen.
There are mainly four kinds of institutional market participants:

- real money, i.e. traditional asset managers
- fast money, i.e. hedge funds, CTAs
- banks
- central banks, sovereign wealth funds & supranationals

Then you have family offices, and corporate treasuries.
Real money includes pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds and endowments. Unlike fast money, real money is usually long only and has extended holding periods. Fast money may dump on you. Real money may do so indirectly as it rebalances exposure.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Profile picture
7 Dec
The next 20K break, whenever that may come, could easily lead to a major $BTC breakout.

That's why being long is the best play even for those who are short-term bearish.
Getting net short here hoping for 16K-17K is a bad bet to me, regardless of if price breaks down or not.
As the saying goes, don't fight the trend.

This bullish trend does not get any stronger.

Price is somewhat overbought here, but neither sentiment nor positioning are extreme.

I remain bullish and positioned accordingly.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Profile picture
1 Dec
In traditional markets a 10x long generally refers to a trade ten times the size of the trading account.

In crypto markets a 10x long generally refers to a trade ten times the size of the position margin.
That is so as Bitmex innovated by implementing "isolated margin", which separates the margin of a position from the rest of the account.

Don't have isolated margin outsde of crypto.
In crypto a trader taking a 20x long is generally someone using 20x leverage using isolated margin, which technically means trade has a 5% stop.

Given how price gaps, it is best to use high leverage only with isolated margin (as a stop loss).

100x => 1%
20x => 5%
5x => 20%
Read 5 tweets
Alex Profile picture
1 Dec
I can say the same thing about Cronje. I have been outspoken in the past about things he did wrong, but I cannot understate how much he has done right.
He's also a natural born pump (and dump) machine.

Can't pump without dump.
$SUSHI and $KP3R pumping on the news.
Read 4 tweets

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