Thrilled to announce our new paper by Victoria Junquera and Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, "Assessing livelihood vulnerability using a Bayesian network: a case study in northern #Laos”, is now out in @ecologyandsociety1 ecologyandsociety.org/vol25/iss4/art… #openaccess #WomenInSTEM. Short thread👇
This work analyzes the effect of #cashcrop production on livelihood #vulnerability, which we define in terms of the probability distribution of household income.
We use a #Bayesian network to estimate the probability distribution of household income, conditional on biophysical (e.g., yield), household (e.g., agricultural land), and commodity price variables. 
By expressing all variables, including stressors such as price volatility and yield variability, as probability distributions, our model explicitly reflects exposure and sensitivity to shocks.
Our results show the effects of household land portfolio, including diversification between cash crops and between cash and food crops, on household income and income variability.
The explicit and graphical representation of income distribution curves makes it straightforward to visualize income #inequalities, e.g., between household types or case study areas.
This approach can be used to identify the household types that have the highest potential to benefit from agricultural #commercialization and can be used to help design policy instruments that act as safety nets, such as subsidized healthcare or insurance.
Also check out Victoria Junqera's other papers on #rubber in northwestern #Laos: sciencedirect.com/science/articl… and sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
This @ETH_en PLUS research was funded by the @snsf_ch @r4d_programme and implemented in partnership with the National University of Laos NUOL.
@threadreaderapp unroll
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
