My notes on Kerala battle ground Part 1.


It will go through all the excruciating experiences minus the torture of TMC. Eventually lotus will bloom in every pond in Kerala.

Do you think the Communists didn't learn anything from Bengal?
Well, they did.

The early learning dawned on the Communists a decade ago is what Mamta's R0hingya experiments today are.

Communists learnt that they can prolong their existence for a time if they allowed a similar yet rising prophetic and m!L!t4nt outfit work with them.
It's almost like a relay race. The one that has run and is finishing handing over the baton to the new runner.

SDPl is the new runner in Kerala.

Mu5l!m League controls Congress and SDPl controls Communists.

Either way, Kerala is getting ready for l5l4m!c rule.
The foot soldiers of Communism, the honourable citizens of Utopia don't know what's eating them up.

Thankfully, Kerala has no scope for a Trinamool. No Didi to emerge and hinder BJP's eventual rise.

However, power is still a long way out for BJP in Kerala. They have not come to the critical mass yet.

17% from 13.95% is a great achievement, and I credit @surendranbjp entirely for this win. He did work magic in such a short time.
But @BJP4Keralam seems to be confused about what expectations to set.

@surendranbjp should feel free to strategise and communicate without worrying about sentiments and support. If you say the bare truth the way you see it, and lay out your plans, people will stick with you.
Last couple of times, KS placed people's emotions and early signals of groundswell above his own convictions and plans. They backfired.

People's perception on winning party is not the only factor.

But I don't blame them if the BJP leadership felt the pressure of perception.
There is such an air of urgency in the state due to BJP's success everywhere, the perception of Hindu consolidation, and an extreme anti-incumbency which unfortunately don't convert into votes for two major reasons:
1. Lack of belief among core support base and swingers that BJP will win to rule - causes people to vote Communists 'OUT' rather than voting anyone in.

Example is Congress' sweep in 2019 LS elections. This was close on heels of the Shabarimala struggle.
2. Clandestine agreement between UDF and LDF to defeat BJP will result in mutual winnability.

As I have said a number of times in the past, SoGa prefers Communists in Kerala rather than her own party.

Congress cannot 'handle' the agencies and police the way PV has.
Since they are conjoined twins at the centre, SoGa and Yechuri have no qualms sporting together in Kerala.

Consider these:

1. If Communists are elected back in 2021, then BJP will most certainly come to power in 2026 as Congress will melt away like a block of ice.
Rise of other powers like SDPl will be through the power corridors, police and agencies. Not politically at all. But this may mean serious security concerns to the country.

2. If Congress comes in 2021, then SDPl will try to rise as main opposition along with Communists.
Muscle, money, drugs, and media will work with them.

Allowing them to grow politically in opposition will be a much riskier proposition for BJP.

BJP will have a tough fight.

With no media reach, and lack of PQLI needs, BJP will not be able to do much of positive politics.
BJP Kerala leadership is well capable of thinking completely out-of-the-box.

3. BJP coming to power in 2021 will negate both forces out of Kerala. This is practically impossible if BJP did not:

a. Form unholy alliances with the enemies - difficult as SoGa will want congress to
support LDF. BJP cannot give a carrot to Congress as BJP does not let anyone loot their states. Stick, yes. But are the skeletons X-rayed yet?

b. Break parties and coalitions ruthlessly. Bring the broken bits to NDA. Applies to old bits like K Muraleedharan as well. Repeat 'a'.
This includes both UDF and LDF alliances. Break away bits.

c. Start a big channel, preferably something like @republic and do aggressive expose of Con-Comms.

d. Get @surendranbjp @ActorSureshGopi and Sasikala Teacher 24 x 7 till April to campaign across every constituency.
If nothing works, then make the game plan clear, so that the expectations are clearly set.

Like how @Murugan_TNBJP and @annamalai_k have set the right expectations and formulations in TN.

Supporters are excited, and the support base is growing exponentially despite.
This is the first time in the life of many supporters that we are on the winning side thanks to the new BJP leadership.

I am ready to wait and watch the strategy unfurling.

Best wishes.


@JPNadda @blsanthosh @CTRavi_BJP @CPRBJP @AmitShah

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More from @BaluSreevidya

15 Dec

I have tried to answer many questions individually through DM, but looks like it's better to do a thread and post it publicly.

This thread only looks at TN Politics through Rajini's entry angle. Will do a detailed post on the whole of TN pitch later.
Rajini's political entry can be analysed from 4 angles.

1. Why is he in Politics?
2. What will be his strengths?
3. How will the pitch change?
4. What will be his challenges?

Thread 1 - Why is Rajini in Politics and What are his strengths?
1. Why is Rajini in politics?

24 years ago, when he first considered politics, TN was a nasty scene with both Dravidian parties neck deep in corruption.

That was the first time Rajini openly participated in the political process, voicing against the corrupt regime of JJ.
Read 24 tweets
14 Dec

Counting is on 16 December.

Kerala's results for BJP will give sleepless nights for the conjoined Congress-Communist twins.


1. Like last time, RSS - which is the strongest in Kerala - played a key role on the ground

2. Good work at Booth level work, focus on critical mass for candidates, issue based approach for wards

3. Last time, BJP ate into Congress bastions, this time it will ALSO eat into Communist bastions

4. BJP has fielded 500 Xs and 112 Muslim candidates, a clear ward strategy
5. The struggles led by @surendranbjp have brought unexpected support from women who came to the streets to protest against the corrupt Communist government.

This is a clear signal of change in BJP's favour.
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec

For those who are interested in Kerala politics, specifically BJP's stance and chances, I am transcribing a Youtube Q&A with @surendranbjp BJP president, Kerala.

A vibrant and savvy politician, KS is the leader Kerala BJP supporters asked for.
He is an extremely sharp strategist who leads from the front - someone who sees the dance from the balcony and also perfects nuances on the floor.

This interview reflects his acumen, clarity of thoughts and candid approach to politics. A no-nonsense leader, he says a lot.
1. How is BJP aligning with RSS in Kerala?

BJP and RSS relationship is that of ideology and political outfit (I have discussed this in detail in a previous thread and KS's view supports my points) and is strong currently.

Covid relief work has brought us even closer.
Read 36 tweets
8 Dec
A few years ago, I heard a 27 year old young father and husband dying of heart-attack due to stress from work.

One of the key reforms I have recommended in the organised corporate sector is the Health and Wellbeing of employees.

~ 1/6
Workload setting, workflow setting, targets and KPIs should all be comparable to developed countries.

Indian private sector employee does 5 times the work of their corresponding employee in a developed market.

Yet while immigrating, India is not a 'comparable labour market'
Workload, flexibility of work hours, 5 days a week instead of 6 or 5.5 days, no 24 hour access to employees over mobile phones, 8 hour workday or shifts - there is so much to regulate.

It's a slog scenario in stark contrast with public sector where employees are protected.
Read 6 tweets
29 Nov
Why is BJP pushing so hard for GHMC?

As we all know, Dubakka victory is a surprise encouragement. But is that why the heavyweights have descended there?

Here are my views:

~ BJP has exposed the nexus between KCR and AIMIM
~ With a distant second representation in the GHMC, AIMIM has already created a strong politico-religious finance system to fund its activities that can go well beyond Hyderabad/Bhagya Nagar.

~ It has enough funding to expand AIMIM into becoming the new Congress.
~ What it does now is consolidating the hitherto Congress bloc vote.

~ AIMIM and Congress have got Rohingyas into Hyderabad in the exact way Pakistani muslims were brought to Kashmir and muslims from Jordan/ Morocco to Gaza. We know what that means.

Why is Hyderabad targeted?
Read 8 tweets
28 Nov
Kolahala Srinivas keeps raising this question of why @AmitShah did not endorse NDA alliance publicly despite EPS and OPS announcing it in the govt function.

He seems to speculate that @BJP4TamilNadu is waiting for Rajnikant to enter politics.

I disagree.

I had mentioned in my tweet prior to Amit Shah's visit that
he will NOT:

~ meet any actor
~ declare alliances/ allies

I had said that these were @JPNadda 's job and Shah will not undermine his Party President's role by openly declaring an alliance.
People should stop seeing Shah as BJP president. Nadda is well capable of managing this portfolio.

I had written a few months ago in Malayalam about how TN politics will be a bipolar one.

AIADMK is needed at the centre for the passing of difficult bills.
Read 4 tweets

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