Thread by @BaluSreevidya

My notes on Kerala battle ground Part 1.

KERALA IS THE NEW BENGAL. IN EVERY WAY.

It will go through all the excruciating experiences minus the torture of TMC. Eventually lotus will bloom in every pond in Kerala.

Do you think the Communists didn't learn anything from Bengal?

Well, they did.

The early learning dawned on the Communists a decade ago is what Mamta's R0hingya experiments today are.

Communists learnt that they can prolong their existence for a time if they allowed a similar yet rising prophetic and m!L!t4nt outfit work with them.

It's almost like a relay race. The one that has run and is finishing handing over the baton to the new runner.

SDPl is the new runner in Kerala.

Mu5l!m League controls Congress and SDPl controls Communists.

Either way, Kerala is getting ready for l5l4m!c rule.

The foot soldiers of Communism, the honourable citizens of Utopia don't know what's eating them up.

Thankfully, Kerala has no scope for a Trinamool. No Didi to emerge and hinder BJP's eventual rise.

BJP's PROPOSITIONS IN KERALA

However, power is still a long way out for BJP in Kerala. They have not come to the critical mass yet.

17% from 13.95% is a great achievement, and I credit @surendranbjp entirely for this win. He did work magic in such a short time.

But @BJP4Keralam seems to be confused about what expectations to set.

@surendranbjp should feel free to strategise and communicate without worrying about sentiments and support. If you say the bare truth the way you see it, and lay out your plans, people will stick with you.

Last couple of times, KS placed people's emotions and early signals of groundswell above his own convictions and plans. They backfired.

People's perception on winning party is not the only factor.

But I don't blame them if the BJP leadership felt the pressure of perception.

There is such an air of urgency in the state due to BJP's success everywhere, the perception of Hindu consolidation, and an extreme anti-incumbency which unfortunately don't convert into votes for two major reasons:

1. Lack of belief among core support base and swingers that BJP will win to rule - causes people to vote Communists 'OUT' rather than voting anyone in.

Example is Congress' sweep in 2019 LS elections. This was close on heels of the Shabarimala struggle.

2. Clandestine agreement between UDF and LDF to defeat BJP will result in mutual winnability.

As I have said a number of times in the past, SoGa prefers Communists in Kerala rather than her own party.

Congress cannot 'handle' the agencies and police the way PV has.

Since they are conjoined twins at the centre, SoGa and Yechuri have no qualms sporting together in Kerala.

Consider these:

1. If Communists are elected back in 2021, then BJP will most certainly come to power in 2026 as Congress will melt away like a block of ice.

Rise of other powers like SDPl will be through the power corridors, police and agencies. Not politically at all. But this may mean serious security concerns to the country.

2. If Congress comes in 2021, then SDPl will try to rise as main opposition along with Communists.

Muscle, money, drugs, and media will work with them.

Allowing them to grow politically in opposition will be a much riskier proposition for BJP.

BJP will have a tough fight.

With no media reach, and lack of PQLI needs, BJP will not be able to do much of positive politics.

BJP Kerala leadership is well capable of thinking completely out-of-the-box.

3. BJP coming to power in 2021 will negate both forces out of Kerala. This is practically impossible if BJP did not:

a. Form unholy alliances with the enemies - difficult as SoGa will want congress to

support LDF. BJP cannot give a carrot to Congress as BJP does not let anyone loot their states. Stick, yes. But are the skeletons X-rayed yet?

b. Break parties and coalitions ruthlessly. Bring the broken bits to NDA. Applies to old bits like K Muraleedharan as well. Repeat 'a'.

This includes both UDF and LDF alliances. Break away bits.

c. Start a big channel, preferably something like @republic and do aggressive expose of Con-Comms.

d. Get @surendranbjp @ActorSureshGopi and Sasikala Teacher 24 x 7 till April to campaign across every constituency.

If nothing works, then make the game plan clear, so that the expectations are clearly set.

Like how @Murugan_TNBJP and @annamalai_k have set the right expectations and formulations in TN.

Supporters are excited, and the support base is growing exponentially despite.

This is the first time in the life of many supporters that we are on the winning side thanks to the new BJP leadership.

I am ready to wait and watch the strategy unfurling.

Best wishes.

Cont'd.

@JPNadda @blsanthosh @CTRavi_BJP @CPRBJP @AmitShah