Thread by @LHSummers

I spoke via Zoom last night at the Beijing Forum 2020: COVID-19 Shock to Global Health and Development.

I retold the story of Reagan and Gorbachev and their private walk around Lake Geneva in 1985. As the story is told, Reagan asks Gorbachev if he would come to the defense of the USA upon the invasion of aliens from outer space and Gorbachev says, “Yes, of course.”

Gorbachev asks the same of Reagan and gets the same response. The two leaders then agree to collaborate in defense of all of humanity.

Invasions of aliens from outer space is the stuff of fantasy and fiction. Invasion of microbes from our planet into our bodies is our current reality.

This pandemic threat we have been living with for the past year is as close to reality comes to a common threat that transcends international boarders, transcends political systems and nations, without any kind of a human boundary.

Like the hypothetical invasion, this reminds us of our common humanity and demands a collective response.

COVID-19 can’t be contained any place, unless it is contained every place.

In an increasingly interdependent world there is no walling off for a long period of time of a contagious microbe like COVID-19.

This is as profound a challenge we have ever faced for the capacity for international cooperation. The stakes are immense.

In a JAMA paper with @Cutler_econ, we suggested the costs of this pandemic are $16 trillion to the US economy, suggesting as much as $75-$80 trillion to the global economy.

The longer this disease circulates at this scale, the greater the possibility of mutation and the risk of a more deadly variance.

There is no more responsible or moral course than the kind of intense cooperation that Reagan and Gorbachev had in mind. Yet we haven't seen the intense cooperation at the government level in the economic or health realm.

The collective effort has been small compared to the separate, domestic efforts.

If there is to be a successful, strong and effective global collective effort in respect to the pandemic threat, it will depend on the USA and China more than any other two countries. Can we set aside our differences to meet the basic health of our citizens and humanity?

I suggested three challenges.

First, financing that assumes the rapid availability to vaccinate everyone on the planet by the end of 2022. This is not an act of charity from rich to poor countries. This is an act of forward defense of national self interest.

Second, the commitment of the global community to restore the convergence trend of developing countries and industrial countries.

Third, the establishment of an effective global capacity to meet the next pandemic.

These are challenges that can be met. This generation, as preoccupied as it is with so many valid concerns, can muster a spirit of global cooperation. There is no more important act--as history will judge it--than China and the USA cooperating together to meet this challenge.