17,709 Patients with Covid in English hospitals at 8am this morning, up 1k+ on yday - now at levels only previously seen for the absolute peak 9 days in April - different measure from admissions which is lower...
Wales on this measure, well above peak in April of 919 since early November, now at 1585...
Interesting that there are almost zero excess deaths in care homes (England & Wales) in second wave... 1000 a week at home consistently for months and in past couple of months in hospitals.... 20 weeks of negative excess deaths in hospitals June to October...
middle chunk of negative hospital excess deaths of around just under a thousand a week from june to early October... at same time as positive ones in homes...statistical pattern here pointing towards 13-14000 people in the lull between the waves dying at home rather than hospital

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More from @faisalislam

24 Dec
PM says the deal will “if anything allow UK to do even more business with our European friends... while taking back control of laws...”
PM says this giant free trade zone ie EU-UK will now benefit from the “stimulus of regulatory competition”
“There will be no palisade of tariffs on Jan 1st, there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade”... says the PM

NOTE: the Govt lists new non-tariff barriers to trade with EU from Jan 1st here: gov.uk/prepare-to-exp…
Read 5 tweets
24 Dec
In short, if true. Not win. Multilateral or diagonal cumulation is what’s needed, esp for key Japanese exporters. Bilateral ie UK-EU taken for granted in FTA.

key test of electric car negotiation is - will UK electric cars/ batteries be guaranteed tariff free access to EU?

Hmmm
Not at all clear that Santa delivers the full text to the waiting public by tonight...
German EU Presidency spokesman announces that the EU27 ambassadors waiting to hear the Brexit deal, & start process of provisional application, have now been sent home....
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec
On Brexit, things close, as you’ve heard, waiting apparently on a PM:VDL call, but member states haven’t been briefed on the whole deal yet..

As they would, senior European source saying “big concessions from the UK on fish”. We’ll know when we see, but sign EU27 in sales mode.
Clearly both sides will say other has compromised more - only way to tell is when the detail is published which even if deal comes tonight, we won’t get till tomorrow - as I reported last week text was 800 pages and 1000 further in annexes etc, though Tony C says it’s now 2000
To be clear - we can only tell who compromised more than just “both sides” when we see the text... the informational value I take from sources such as this making claims like this though, is that UK-EU deal is very close, though member states with vetos yet to see it in round...
Read 19 tweets
23 Dec
Health Sec says large swathes of East, and South East England put into Tier 4 from Boxing Day... others into tier 3, even Cornwall will be tier 2.

Another new variant from S Africa means anyone who has travelled from there should quarantine.
Astra Zeneca/ Oxford vaccine approval data now with MHRA says Hancock - when this comes through it will be the big breakthrough we all need...
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec
Quite an interesting cost benefit analysis here... arising from unconfirmed publication of prices paid for vaccine.

In order to get the vaccine first, by a month, would it be worth UK paying much more outside of European Union procurement?
French Europe minister there is defending EU response saying Uk is paying 1.5 to 2 times more for vaccines. Only number we have is the NAO one of £2.9bn for 267m courses of 5 diff vaccines, 914m upfront.... Image
Could do quite an interesting piece of algebra to backwards engineer how much uk has paid for each vaccine ...
And compare with the list that was tweeted by the Belgian minister...

UK: 100m*£AZ + 60m*£valvena + 40m*£pfizer + 60m*£novavax + 7m*£moderna = £2.9bn Image
Read 6 tweets
22 Dec
Important Commons Committee on border delays:

Road Haulage Assoc: 1000s lorries waiting “catastrophic & unacceptable”...“no confidence, never had confidence drivers will be looked after” need hygiene facilities/food, like France.
Manston mixing could cause “worse Covid problems”
RHA - how we treat foreign hauliers so badly is a “shame on this country”... “we are creating a hostile environment” for foreign hauliers, fining them for going into Kent when they “have nowhere else to go” - need to be v careful, they wont come
Food and drink fed: “For the Scottish seafood industry millions of pounds are going down the drain...” no options “short of opening a lobster shack on the M20 and selling to the truckers”
Read 10 tweets

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