You may have seen CDC reporting 4.6 million doses of #COVID19 vaccine have been distributed & 614,117 administered. Why the huge gap between doses distributed vs administered numbers? (short thread)
Some of the gap is from reporting lag: it can take up to 3 days for providers distributing the vaccine to report to state/local health officials, and additional time for officials to report to CDC…
Also, doses distributed to states have been held for use in long-term care facilities via the federal pharmacy partnership, which is only now starting to ramp up. Its goal is to reach 4.5 million residents and staff at 55,000 nursing homes nationwide…
Given the roll out of the pharmacy/LTC efforts, we might expect administered doses will start to climb rapidly in the coming days/weeks.

Still, there are other reasons why there is a gap between the number of doses states have on hand, and doses administered.
Some states are administering vaccines faster than others, even as all are faced with logistical challenges like cold chain and shipment size. It’s “a jigsaw puzzle and balancing act” and states are “building the plane while flying it”…
There are also differences across states between doses allocated (based on adult population) and the proportion of a state’s population in priority group 1a. All else held equal, some states will “lag in getting shots to the highest risk groups”…
So you have a situation like this: "By the time Massachusetts vaccinates the last person in [priority group 1a], Nevada could have moved on" to subsequent priority groups such as 75 and older, and frontline essential workers.
These differences and gaps across states will only grow over time as we move into Phases 1b and 1c, where the logistical challenges of reaching rural areas and potentially hesitant groups looms larger and larger.

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More from @joshmich

4 Oct
I realize that without further details made public we're left picking up scraps of info about the White House cluster, but putting together a list of people and their test results and speculating about their exposures is not "contact tracing".
Contact tracing is supposed to be a methodical effort by investigators to speak with known cases, ensuring they have support and are taking proper precautions, and also ask them about their close contacts so those people can be told they have been exposed and take proper action.
Contact tracers:
-Let people know they may have been exposed and should monitor their health for signs and symptoms of the disease.
-Help people who may have been exposed get tested.
-Ask people to self-isolate if they have the disease or self-quarantine if a close contact.
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
ICYMI: @KFF released the results of a new poll a few days ago, covering a number of #COVID19 topics.

I'll highlight a few of the findings in a thread.…
Among all registered voters the economy ranks as the most important voting issue, the coronavirus pandemic next. However, there is a stark difference by party, with 36% of Dems saying coronavirus is most important and just 4% of Republicans saying that. Image
If a Covid-19 vaccine became available before the election, just 4 in 10 said they would choose to get vaccinated (with Republicans slightly more likely to say no than Democrats). Image
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
Contact tracing apps have evolved to become "exposure notification apps"; Apple and Google are streamlining the process of participation, allowing push notifications for users to opt-in automatically (Apple) or direct users to state-supported notification apps (Google).
The hope is that there will be much greater adoption of these apps because now opt-in will be embedded directly in device operating systems.

Adoption is state-by-state, and about 20 states have, or will soon be, deploying this approach.
Up until now, uptake of state contact tracing apps has been quite low. For example, "less than 5% of the population in North Dakota downloaded the state’s app as of June, while only about 1.8% of Utahns had done so by July."…
Read 7 tweets
7 Sep
I’ve been thinking about the only other time a pandemic vaccine was rolled out during a US Presidential election year: the 1976 “swine flu” campaign. What warnings and lessons might that experience hold?
In brief, a new influenza virus was detected in January 1976 in NJ. Public health officials at the time thought the US (and the world) faced an imminent pandemic from this virus, to which no one under 50 had pre-existing immunity.
In March President Ford, following strong recommendations from CDC experts and other health officials, announced the US would develop and distribute enough vaccines to immunize every man, woman, and child in the country to prevent a pandemic.
Read 23 tweets
20 Aug
It is increasingly clear that Chinese government officials- locally in Wuhan and nationally in Beijing- sought to hide information and downplay the seriousness of the coronavirus outbreak in the critical first weeks of the pandemic.…
Wuhan officials hid information from national authorities. A recent U.S. intelligence community assessment concluded "Officials in Beijing were kept in the dark for weeks about the potential devastation of the virus by local officials in central China."
At the same time "senior officials in Beijing, even as they were scrambling to pry data from officials in central China, played a role in obscuring the outbreak by withholding information from the World Health Organization."
Read 5 tweets
13 Aug
A few weeks ago @ForeignAffairs asked a group of experts if they agreed or disagreed with the following statement (and level of confidence):

"The daily tally of COVID-19 cases around the world will be higher at the beginning of 2021 than it is today."…
Prediction is a fool's game, especially when it comes to pandemics, but even so a number of us responded. Most agreed with the statement, some with fairly high levels of confidence.
I disagreed with the statement (though with little confidence).

When we were asked to weigh in, the global average number of new cases was surpassing 200,000 daily. So I thought, how might that level compare to the tally we will see in the first weeks of 2021?
Read 7 tweets

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