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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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23 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Ireland recently sees a surge in Dublin, as the country returns to level 5 restrictions in response to the new variant. The measures will start from Christmas Eve to mid-Jan next year.
India reported 19,556 cases yesterday, the first time less than 20k since July. Nevertheless, the state of Maharashtra is imposing a new curfew that will last until Jan. 5 in response to the new variant.
Thailand's new outbreak from a seafood market grows to more than 1,000 cases, accounting for about one-fifth of its total confirmed cases.
US total confirmed cases surpassed 18M as daily infections plateau for several days. The daily average has been over 200k since Dec.4, and hospitalizations have consistently set new highs, now at 117k.
Tentatively hopeful news in the recent outbreak in New South Wales, Australia as there is only one case with unknown source in 4 days (pink), and the number of community transmission cases (blue and pink) decreases in last two days.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
24 Dec
Completely WRONG article:

First, it says bizarrely: “The claim that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible is based on primarily epidemiological evidence and data on increased viral loads”

NO: The reason we know it is more transmissible is that it dominates other variants over time.
1/
There is no doubt it is more transmissible because it is now over 60% of cases in London. And the effect happened so quickly it is huge. It’s obvious.

2/
Second, having a more rapidly transmitting variant like this in a country means cases increase more rapidly even when people are wearing masks and avoiding contact. Getting cases to go down is much harder, with stronger restrictions and more social and economic impacts.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
24 Dec
South Africa reported 9,501 cases yesterday, as the daily average reaches the highest since August. The new variant first identified in South Africa (different from the one identified in the UK), is now detected in cases in the UK. Image
The US reported 195,033 new cases with 3,401 deaths. Currently, hospitalizations see new highs, approaching 120k. Hospitalizations are increasing by about 4k per day for two weeks. Image
As they reach 1M total cases, Peru's daily average cases and deaths are currently accumulating much slower than during its peak, which occurred around August. Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
23 Dec
Opinion | Half-measures won’t protect us from the new covid-19 variant

As bad as covid-19 has been, you can imagine it being worse.

1/
washingtonpost.com/opinions/half-…
If we ever run into such a bug, covid-19 may prove to have been our training exercise... Maybe next time, the rest of us will also be ready to take decisive action before the new pathogen can get a foothold.

2/
"It’s a nice theory, but like any theory, it needs a real-world test. Unfortunately, we might be getting one as London goes into lockdown and as nation after nation closes its borders to British travelers. All because a new variant..may be as much as 70% more contagious

3/
Read 11 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
22 Dec
COVID Action Group Statement:

We Must Adopt a “Zero Covid” Strategy to Defend
Against new and old Coronavirus Variants

The recently reported genetic changes to the coronavirus that have been identified in the UK and South Africa pose new and additional risks..

1/ Image
to our health and prosperity. These new variants are reported to significantly increase transmissibility from human to human. These variants have already spread well beyond South Africa and the UK and likely are already present in the United States.

2/
With hospitals and healthcare workers already stretched, we must take immediate action to minimize importation and further spread of this highly transmissible pathogen.

3/
Read 19 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
22 Dec
Airlines Meet Cuomo's Ask:

Three major airlines that fly UK to NY daily agreed to ensure travelers provide negative COVID test

"If it's been flying around the world, it will be here." the governor said

1/
 nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavir…
"This is another disaster waiting to happen," Cuomo said Monday. "If U.K. closed down, if 120 countries require testing, if Canada left a plane on the tarmac because it wouldn't allow it to deboard, if other European countries are banning travel, why are we doing nothing?

2/
"This would be it. This would the second wave. This would be a mutated virus coming back," Cuomo said Monday. He said the federal government should halt travel between the countries until more is understood about this latest strain

3/
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
21 Dec
UK reported 27,249 cases yesterday, lower than the day before, yet the 7-day average climbed to a new high of 29.1k. Today, they report a new high of 35,928. For this new variant that's raging in parts of the country, the chief medical officer warned it may be more contagious.
London and several other regions go into a new lockdown starting today, which will last over the Christmas holidays. Several European countries begin to ban flights coming from UK, including Netherlands and Belgium.

Italy's decline is slowing down recently as cases fluctuate around 15k per day. it will enforce the strictest level of countermeasures nationwide over the Christmas.
Read 4 tweets

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