Thread by @lxeagle17

A 12/23 update for the Georgia runoffs, total votes only:

Total Votes: 1,884,929 (+206,305)
Statewide Turnout: 24.7 (+2.7%)

Ossoff Counties:

DeKalb 26.2->29.2
Cobb: 22.4->25.1
Fulton 24.9->28.0
Gwinnett: 22.6->25.4
Chatham: 15.6 -> 17.4
Hancock: 26.9->30.2
Talbot: 29.8->31.7
Bibb: 20.3->21.9
Clayton: 20.4->23.9
...

Perdue Counties:

Hall: 20.4->22.3
Fayette: 26.6->30.4
Columbia: 23.2->25.7
Houston: 22.9->26.1
Baldwin: 12.3->13.6
Cherokee: 21.9->24.6
Forsyth: 25.7->29.9
Paulding: 21.0->24
Effingham: 19.2->21.6
Laurens: 15.6->19.5
Carroll: 18.8->21.1
Coweta: 19.9->22.2
Haralson: 16.1->17.9

Notable: Effingham (R+50) did NOTHING. Clayton outpacing Hall (WTF?!). Baldwin in-person turnout is horrible, and that's why the decrease. I think Laurens cleared a mail backlog, hence the huge spike. And once again, Hall county is a complete and absolute disaster.

Forsyth is good and Fayette are good for the GOP! But guess what? They're highly educated. Rural counties like Haralson and exurbs like Hall just aren't doing what they need to.

Lean Democrat. Please understand that this does not mean Republicans can't win. But if you ask me, Democrats are favored right now based on data.

Again, I cannot stress this enough: there is a very real chance the GOP takes both seats. If the electorate is unexpectedly pro-GOP or they see an election-day surge, they take the seat. But right now, their turnout is not where it needs to be, IMO, and that's a problem.

Special thanks to @ADincgor for the data.

I did this all by hand and I'm kind of tired so please tell me if you catch any errors in my math.

(the arrows here indicate the change from yesterday to today)

Probably explains why Chatham is doing so badly right now in turnout.

https://twitter.com/tracybrisson/status/1341401137812004864?s=20