Thread by @lxeagle17

🚨GEORGIA UPDATE 12/23 (TOTAL + VBM + IN-PERSON)🚨

Total Votes: 1,884,692 ( +206,068)

Percent of registered voters: 24.4%
White: 55.4% (56.5% in general)
Black: 31.8% (27.7% general)
Hispanic: 2% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.3% (2.6% general)

COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 24.4%
DeKalb: 28.8%
Cobb: 25%
Fulton: 27.3%
Gwinnett: 25.1%
Chatham: 17%
Muscogee: 20.9%
Columbia: 25.3%
Houston: 25.7%
Baldwin: 13.4%
Fayette: 30.2%
Hall: 21.9%
Clayton: 23.4%
Forsyth: 29.5%

🚨IN-PERSON EARLY VOTES🚨

Total Votes: 1,205,483 (+147,957)
Percent of registered voters: 15.6%
White: 55.5% (58.2% in general)
Black: 32% (26.4% general)
Hispanic: 2.1% (2.6% general)
Asian: 1.9% (2.0% general)

COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 15.6%
DeKalb: 18%
Cobb: 10.4%
Fulton: 19.6%
Gwinnett: 15.1%
Chatham: 9.8%
Muscogee: 16.1%
Columbia: 16.5%
Houston: 14.5%
Baldwin: 9%
Fayette: 21.8%
Hall: 13.6%
Clayton: 15.2%
Forsyth: 20.4%

🚨VBM DATA🚨

Accepted Votes: 679,209 (+58,111)
White: 55.2% (53% general)
Black: 31.5% (30.3% general)
Return Rate: 50.7%

Requested Votes: 1,340,388 (+13,337)
Request Rate: 17.3%
White: 51.7% (51.2% general)
Black: 32.7% (31.4% general)
66+: 46.3% (40.7% general)

COUNTY REQUEST RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 17.3%
DeKalb: 24.6%
Cobb: 25.6%
Fulton: 17.7%
Gwinnett: 19.8%
Chatham: 19.4%
Muscogee: 17.1%
Columbia: 14.2%
Houston: 18.7%
Baldwin: 19.6%
Fayette: 19.2%
Hall: 15.1%
Clayton: 16.5%
Forsyth: 16.2%

These percentage numbers differ a bit from what I showed yesterday night, and it’s because the Elect Project received a new voter file, which changes the percentages a bit. But let’s see what we’ve learned.

Ultimately, the raw vote total changes suggest a pretty favorable picture for Democrats. Black voter turnout being this high this close to the election means we're probably headed for an electorate that's about 29.5-30% Black going into election day (27.7% general).

It's also going to be more suburban; DeKalb and Fulton's turnout stayed strong, and Cobb and Gwinnett saw notable upticks in turnout. Clayton cast more ballots than the percentage change might indicate, but they also added more voters to the rolls.

A 31.8% Black electorate with 5 weekdays to go is not where the GOP want to be. Because with 5 weekdays to go in November, the % of Black voter turnout was 28.7 (3.1% lower). And there's an extra Saturday here too.

Meanwhile, Hall County's turnout stayed low, and while educated areas like Forsyth saw upticks, the exurban and rural turnout isn't where it needs to be yet for the GOP.

The exurbs being this low still are a real problem for the Republican Party, and the turnout disparity needs to be addressed soon. They’ve got time and a very real path to success. But it requires some trends reversing and the non-college voters turning out. They’re not there yet

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1341897004511678464

Black turnout staying *this high* is good news for the Democrats, but just as encouraging is a slight uptick in Asian and Hispanic vote of late. It is probably not a coincidence that this comes with improving turnout in Gwinnett. But it needs to continue getting better.

Last thing to note here is that there are 5 weekdays left in EV, and 4 days are probably pro-GOP while the last day is likely neutral. There are also two weekend days, and those are pro-Democrat.

Anyways, let’s see from here. Democrats are slightly ahead, but it’s not over.