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Luca Dellanna Profile picture
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23 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Last minute gift?

Send your friends a copy of my book “100 Truths You Will Learn Too Late”

33% OFF until Christmas!

gum.co/100Truths/gift

(use the “gift” icon as shown below and follow the instructions)
Here is some reviews
It’s a rare opportunity to grab my book for less than usual.

I very seldom run promotions.

Also, you can use it to gift the book and its learnings to a friend.Perfect to read during the holidays and start the new year from a new perspective.
Excerpt here: luca-dellanna.com/100-Truths
(That’s a review of the first version; the typos have been fixed in the second one. But if the book gets
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ with typos, you know it’s really good.)

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

Luca Dellanna Profile picture
24 Dec
THE LINDY PRINCIPLE, GENERALIZED

The Lindy Principle, from Taleb's "Antifragile", uses age to infer information about life expectancy.

Here, I propose an intuitive justification and I explore practical uses other than estimating life expectancy.

(a thread, 1/N)
2/ For a person, every year of life reduces its conditional life expectancy. A 70 years-old is expected to live 14.4 more years, and a 71yo is only expected to live 13.7 more years.

Conversely, the longer a book is on the NYT bestseller list, the longer it's expected to stay.
3/ In Antifragile, building on Mandelbrot, Taleb writes the Lindy Principle as:

"For the perishable, every additional day in its life translates into a shorter additional life expectancy.

For the nonperishable, every additional day may imply a longer life expectancy."
Read 25 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
21 Dec
Now that the vaccine is ~approved in the EU, vaccination rate over the next two weeks will be a great proxy to estimate government competence.

Not a perfect measure by all means, but probably one of the best we had in a long time; and a bipartisan one.
Motivations: most other measures can be argued, "we did bad, because we took a different tradeoff". This one hardly can.

We can argue on tradeoffs re: top speed (eg, mandatory or voluntary? Everyone or at-risk-only?) but the initial acceleration should be a target for all.
The purpose wouldn't be, of course, to make a ranking. It's not a zero-sum competition.

Instead, it would be to be a benchmark, and an eye-opener on what's possible and on the opportunity costs of lacking competence.
Read 4 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
21 Dec
VACCINE & COVID TAIL RISK

A few days ago, @NachoOliveras asked, how do the tail risks of COVID and the vaccine compare?

Here's an attempt to answer it on practical grounds.

1/7
2/ A first consideration is that one person that gets COVID can infect others, whereas one that gets the vaccine can't.

It then follows that the best practical solution is to deploy the vaccine on at least part of the population.
3/ Both the risks of getting the vaccine and in particular of getting COVID are not homogeneously distributed across the population.

An 80yo is at larger risk of dying of COVID than a 30yo; an infected restaurant worker can spread the virus more than an infected work-from-home.
Read 15 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
21 Dec
I was told that privacy wasn’t important because I didn’t have anything to hide.

(An argument absurd for a ton of reasons, clearly; but let’s examine this one in particular. Thread.)
2/ The paper argues that using web history & similar inputs could unlock access to lending services.

For example, someone who scores just not enough on traditional screening methods used by banks could be included thanks to a virtuous search history.
3/ The above is true. However, it also means that people who would be "in" thanks to traditional screening methods could be excluded thanks to a less-virtuous search history.

More importantly, who decides what's a virtuous search history?
Read 7 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
20 Dec
GHOST KITCHENS AND INFLUENCERS

Ghost kitchens are unbranded kitchen-only restaurants that only produce food for UberEats and similar food-delivery apps.

It turns out that ghost kitchens are a great way to turn social capital into financial one overnight

2/ The main problem of ghost kitchens is that their brand power is very low.

They can create a "fake restaurant" website, logo, and brand.

But no storefront → people don't know about them unless they discover them on UberEats & co, or paid advertisement.
3/ Influencers, conversely, have a brand and an audience.

If they're famous enough, their bottleneck is to find high-conversion products that they can sell over and over.

Restaurants are such an option, but opening real ones requires capital, time, and competence.
Read 6 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
20 Dec
Often, people are unclear because they don’t want to be clear.

They want wiggle room.

This isn’t solved by working on clarity. Working on something that isn’t the bottleneck produces minimum change.

This is solved by removing the need for wiggle room.

Examples 👇
2/ First example: reasons why managers are unclear while giving orders
3/ Some more. The root cause to be addressed is not lack of clarity, but the middle column below.
Read 4 tweets

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