.@CER_EU will be analysing the #Brexit deal in due course, when there is a text to study. In the meantime here are 10 reflections on the Brexit process - a thread. /1
1. Getting a free trade agreem't done in less than a year is unusually quick. Both teams of negotiators deserve praise. UK's refusal to extend transition may have helped, by concentrating minds. The cost: great uncertainty for firms, which haven't known what rules to expect. /2
2. Most Brits have no idea how hard Brexit will be. Travelers, manufacturers & farmers will suffer irksome friction at borders; service companies will lose access to EU markets; businesses that import EU workers will be hurt. So UK will be less attractive to foreign investors. /3
3. Leaving the EU is rather like accession in reverse: when joining EU, a country has to take EU's terms or it doesn't get in. Once UK had set its red lines, EU decided the broad outlines of the deal it would get. EU has ceded on details, but overall shape is what it wanted. /4
4. For past 4.5 years UK governments have seldom been honest about the trade-offs Brexit involves. There is a spectrum between max sovereignty/min economic benefit and min sov'y/max ec gain. Being honest would have required an admission that Brexit carries real economic costs./5
5. May's govt sought a mid-spot on spectrum, Johnson chose an extreme position of maximising sov'y. Future historians will ask why UK disregarded economics during negotiations - eg much attention paid to fish, yet financial services and car industry were ignored; eg 'F*** Bus' /6
6. EU has been paranoid on level playing field. Its big trade surplus suggests field tilts v UK; Brexit will make UK even less competitive. No Tory govt would slash soc'l/envt'l rights or pump billions into industry. UK also silly to fight to keep right to cut rules it likes./7
7. When the Brits realise what a thin deal they've got, their politicians will debate how/whether to improve it. Labour is likely to seek closer economic & security ties. For one reason or another, UK & EU will be in permanent negotiation, for at least 50 years. Ask the Swiss./8
8. In those negot's UK will be hampered by lack of trust on EU side. Episodes like the attempts to prorogue Parliament and over-ride the Withdrawal Agreement have damaged UK soft power. EU will be pragmatic and realistic but it doesn't start out with lots of goodwill to UK. /9
9. The question of UK rejoining EU won't be on the political agenda for at least a generation. Many Remainers want to make the best of a bad job & move on. EU wdn't want an application from a country that lacked a national consensus in favour of rejoining - which is far away. /10
10. Brexit adds to uncertainty about UK unity (many Brexiteers care little about this). It's helping to boost support for SNP & Scottish independence. And nobody can be sure how new border in Irish Sea will affect politics in N IRE - which'll stay in single mkt & customs Un'n.END
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
