1/ Who decided that 25 "cases" (positive tests) per 100,000 people is "red" risk level?

That's a positivity rate of 0.025% - far less than 1% and below the false positive rate of the tests (source: Cohen-Kessel, medrxiv.org/content/10.110…)
2/ The hashtag all over this page (noted as the source for the metrics) tells you everything you need to know: #ThePathToZero

"Zero COVID" ignores the costs of focusing solely on COVID instead of the full range of public health

globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-fo…
3/ "Red" level is the "TIPPING POINT," requiring stay-at-home orders.

0.025% positive tests is not any sort of tipping point, and in fact, no "tipping point" has happened anywhere. Cases go up, about 4 weeks later they go down, and after 8 weeks, most activity has subsided
4/ These fear-mongering metrics do not take into account where any community is along the curve, just "Danger! Red alert! Listen to us! We know best! The only thing that is important is #ZeroCOVID!"

These people are not serious and should be ignored.

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More from @jhaskinscabrera

25 Dec
1/ Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, @MartinKulldorff, and @SunetraGupta argue in this essay that there IS a middle ground between lockdowns and a "let it rip" approach."

They also offer specific ways to protect the vulnerable 👇

gbdeclaration.org/focused-protec…
2/ "The aim of focused protection is to minimize overall mortality from both COVID-19 and other diseases by balancing the need to protect high-risk individuals from COVID-19 while reducing the harm that lockdowns have had on other aspects of medical care and public health."
3/ "Standard public health practice regularly seeks creative ways to protect vulnerable people from a host of diseases and conditions that threaten them, and COVID19 should not be an exception... These include,
e.g., frequent on-site testing...
Read 6 tweets
24 Dec
Florida Deaths - 12/24/20

Florida reported a net of 121 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 24 different days, going back to November 13.

Changes by month: November (+3-1), December (+119)

#RationalGround

1/6
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 83
Minimum age: 51
Maximum age: 98
89% are 65 or older <- this is higher than usual
76% are 75 or older

2/6
Additions and deletions by date:

12/23 - 6
12/22 - 10
12/21 - 7
12/20 - 7
12/19 - 4
12/18 - 17
12/17 - 14
12/16 - 7
12/15 - 9
12/14 - 7
12/13 - 3
12/12 - 4
12/11 - 8
12/10 - 5
12/9 - 1
12/8 - 4
12/7 - 3
12/4 - 1
12/2 - 1
12/1 - 1
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
24 Dec
Florida Deaths - 12/23/20

Florida reported a net of 120 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 31 different days, going back to October 5.

Changes by month: October (+3), November (+12-1), December (+107-1)

#RationalGround

1/6
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 77
Minimum age: 38
Maximum age: 97
83% are 65 or older

2/6
Additions and deletions by date:

12/23 - 1
12/22 - 10
12/21 - 12
12/20 - 6
12/19 - 6
12/18 - 5
12/17 - 6
12/16 - 9
12/15 - 10
12/14 - 9
12/13 - 8
12/12 - 4
12/11 - 2
12/10 - 6
12/9 - 3
12/8 - 2
12/7 - removed 1
12/6 - 1
12/5 - 3
12/3 - 2
12/2 - 2
11/30 - 2
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
22 Dec
Florida Deaths - 12/22/20

Florida reported a net of 74 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 31 different days, going back to July 25.

Changes by month: July (+1), August (+3), November (+5-5), December (+76-6)

#RationalGround

1/7
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 74
Minimum age: 36
Maximum age: 103
74% are 65 or older <- this is lower than usual

2/7
Additions and deletions by date:

12/21 - 6
12/20 - 13
12/19 - 9
12/18 - 7
12/17 - 8
12/16 - 4
12/15 - 3
12/14 - 3
12/13 - 4
12/12 - 1
12/11 - removed 1
12/10 - 9
12/9 - 2
12/8 - 3
12/6 - 2
12/4 - removed 2
12/3 - 1
12/2 - 1
12/1 - removed 3
11/30 - removed 1
(cont.)

3/7
Read 7 tweets
22 Dec
Florida Deaths - 12/21/20

Florida reported 112 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 39 different days, going back to July 6.

Changes by month: July (+2), August (+7), September (+1), October (+2), November (+15-1), December (+86)

#RationalGround

1/7
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 80
Minimum age: 40
Maximum age: 101
87% are 65 or older <- this is higher than usual

2/7
Additions and deletions by date:

12/20 - 1
12/19 - 4
12/18 - 2
12/17 - 4
12/16 - 6
12/15 - 7
12/14 - 12
12/13 - 4
12/12 - 6
12/11 - 9
12/10 - 6
12/9 - 2
12/8 - 2
12/7 - 1
12/6 - 1
12/5 - 7
12/4 - 3
12/3 - 2
12/2 - 3
12/1 - 4
11/30 - 3
11/29 - 1
11/28 - 4
11/26 - 1
(cont.)

3/7
Read 7 tweets
21 Dec
1/ As we approach the end of the calendar year, it's interesting to look at Florida emergency room data and compare current levels to those at the beginning of the year (since we're back into respiratory virus season).

ED visits that result in cough-associated admissions:
2/ Visits that mention cough, fever, or shortness of breath:
3/ Visits that mention cough by age group
Read 4 tweets

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