Thread by @MartinKulldorff

@drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH @melindacmills @BillHanage Dear Jenn/@drjenndowd. Thank you for engaging in a scientific exchange. I really appreciate that. In the next few tweets, I will respond to your posts/questions in backward order. 1/8

@drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH @melindacmills @BillHanage Vaccines are great for focused protection if we prioritize older high-risk people and their care takers, like Florida. To minimize deaths, we must also urgently improve protection of the old through standard public health measures listed in the @gbdeclaration & FAQ. 2/8

@drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH @melindacmills @BillHanage @gbdeclaration Nursing home residents have highest risk, but <1% of US population. People >60 who should work from home or take short sabbaticals are fewer than those currently working from home. There are many retirees, but protecting them with e.g. grocery deliveries is relatively easy. 3/8

@drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH @melindacmills @BillHanage @gbdeclaration Not an economist, so I dare not make economic projections. The #GreatBarringtonDeclaration is solely based on minimizing mortality from #COVID19 and minimize lockdown generated collateral damage from eg cancer, cardiovascular disease and mental health. 4/8 gbdeclaration.org

@drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH @melindacmills @BillHanage @gbdeclaration Few people <50 require hospitalization. To avoid overburdened hospitals, the key is to protect the old through focused protection. Everyone should take basic precautions, and nobody should deliberately get infected. That is stupid. Also increases the herd immunity threshold. 5/8

@drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH @melindacmills @BillHanage @gbdeclaration If the young live normal lives, some will be infected, but their risk is less than from lockdown collateral damage. Pandemic will then be naturally over in 3-6 months. Lockdowns just prolonged the pandemic while completely failing to protect the old. 6/8

@drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH @melindacmills @BillHanage @gbdeclaration We do not know enough about #COVID19 to accurately predict expected number of deaths, hospitalizations, or long-term health effect, under any strategy. With unreliable R0, IFR and HI estimates, Imperial College type models are not helpful. 7/8

@drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH @melindacmills @BillHanage @gbdeclaration We do know that there is more than a thousand-fold mortality risk between old and young. Zero-COVID is impossible in US/UK, and focused protection minimizes #COVID19 mortality irrespectively of R0, IFRs and herd immunity thresholds. 8/8 linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19…