'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the region
Not a creature was stirring, but Iran’s foreign legion;

The rockets they placed in the Mideast with care,
In hopes that the Quds Force
soon would be there;
The weapons were nestled
all snug in their places,
While visions of war
put grins on their faces;

In Syria the bombs burst
with a terrible clap,
While the U.N. settles in
for a long winter's nap.
The war grinds on,
Russia spreads more confusion.
More S400 sales are a foregone conclusion.

Trump from the White House tweeting “Syria withdrawal!”
America’s footprint grows increasingly small.
What Biden does next,
nobody knows.
But the fear is a deal that empowers these foes.

Then who to my wondering eyes should appear,
But Esmail Ghani
from the Republic of Fear.
It used to be Qassem,
so lively and quick.
But American drones made quick work of that prick.

Now it’s on Ghani
to continue the game.
In some ways he’s different,
but he’s more of the same.
A bundle of weapons
he brings in his sack,
He’s a peddler of death,
and remorse he does lack.

But his eyes lack that twinkle.
He’s not quite as sly.
Soleimani’s the one for whom Supreme Leader does cry.
Still, the plan is in place
and his control does expand,
with the terrorist groups
that Iran does command.

To fight for the cause,
one by one they all came.
Ghani whistled, and shouted,
and called them by name;
"Now, Hezbollah! Now, Hamas!
now, Shiite militias!
Those Mahan air routes
are so damn suspicious!

To the border with Israel!
Through tunnels we’ll crawl!
We can also hit Saudi!
Bombs away all!"
The refugees shiver
amidst new-fallen snow,
The Levantine land bridge,
It continues to grow.

The IRGC plan,
It’s as clear as can be.
It’s precision munitions
But there’s nothing to see.
It’s all underground,
It’s all out of sight,
Human shields will get hit
But Iran gets off light.

It’s Christmas tomorrow
Nobody will talk of this plight
HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL,
AND TO ALL A GOOD-NIGHT!

• • •

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More from @JSchanzer

26 Nov
OK, tweeps. It's Thanksgiving. Otherwise known as Turkey Day So it's time for my annual thread on Turkey...
Turkey remains a hugely problematic NATO and US ally. From domestic oppression at home to illicit finance and support for terrorism and rogue states abroad, this is an ally in name only. And one gets a sense that the tensions with the US may reach a boiling point soon.
Turkey's terrorism problem first popped up on my radar with the 2010 @IHHen flotilla to Gaza. The organization has long been flagged as having ties to terrorism. I noted those ties here: washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standar…
Read 12 tweets
14 Nov
While Iran regime apologists attempt to explain how al-Qaeda’s #2 was just a pawn or under house arrest by the regime in Tehran, it’s worth remembering some fascinating history dating back to the early 1990s in Sudan.
Under the leadership of Hassan Turabi, Sudan played host to Islamist conferences featuring violent actors from across the Middle East: Al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah...you name it. The goal of these confabs was to unite all violent Islamists under one banner.
This is where that supposed firewall between Sunni and Shia extremist was eroded. It did not remove it entirely. But it paved the way for Iran and Hezbollah to cooperate with groups like Al-Qaeda and Hamas. Those relationships endured.
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
The fact that Al-Qaeda enjoys safe haven in Iran has been known to CT analysts for years. It’s been reinforced by US Treasury designations—including during the Obama years. But mention it as part of Iran’s long list of malign activities, and you get branded a “war monger.”
For good analysis on this topic, follow @FDD’s @LongWarJournal @thomasjoscelyn. For falsehoods, keep scrolling through your feed and watch pro-JCPOA mouthpieces dismiss basic facts for political reasons.
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
(1) Today was a busy day. I’ve not had time to respond to the news about Hezbollah’s missile facilities that Israeli PM Netanyahu exposed today. But here goes...
(2) We at @FDD have been warning about the threat of Hezbollah’s precision guided munitions (PGM) project, sponsored by Iran, for quite some time.
Writing: commentarymagazine.com/articles/jonat…
Speaking: meforum.org/60908/schanzer…
(3) Israel has tried to prevent the missiles from being smuggled to Lebanon by way of Syria, where hundreds of targets have been destroyed in recent years. But it is clear that Hezbollah is now turning its efforts to indigenous production.
Read 9 tweets
21 Aug
Like the Islamic State, without the beheadings.
Just imagine if the US -- or Israel! -- started converting mosques into churches or synagogues. The anger from the Muslim world would be seething. The State Department would be issuing apologies and doing damage control. What is Erdogan's Turkey doing? Gloating and doubling down.
For all the talk of American Islamophobia, it certainly seems to me that Turkey is the one waging a campaign to offend Christians. And the silence from the rest of the Muslim world is deafening.
Read 4 tweets
16 Aug
Arab states want ties with Israel for reasons unconnected to the Palestinians. After a century of conflict, they appear to realize that subordinating their interests to the Palestinian cause was not good for anyone but the Palestinians.
My timeline is filled with analysts bending over backwards to make the Palestinians a central issue in the UAE announcement and future annoucements by other Arab states. It’s bizarre. The under-the-table relationships between Israel and Arab states are driven by self interest.
When we talk about self-interest, that includes: security, cyber, intelligence sharing, technology, trade, etc. Fear of an aggressive Iran looms largest. Israel’s ability to tangle with Tehran does not go unnoticed. But there are other benefits to reap from ties with Israel.
Read 4 tweets

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