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Aaron Derfel

25 Dec, 10 tweets, 5 min read

1) Quebec administered nearly twice the number of #COVID19 vaccines as new infections on Thursday, raising hopes that the second wave will eventually be conquered. But for now, though, cases are skyrocketing in three Montreal health districts.

2) Although cases have been surging in some parts of Montreal for days now, on Thursday three health districts posted more than 100 #COVID19 cases each for the first time in the second wave. Does this suggest this wave has still yet to peak? Please take a look at the chart below.

3) In total, Montreal counted 892 #COVID19 cases Thursday, two days after posting 893. The city’s seven-day rolling average has jumped to 36.83 infections per 100,000 residents. Experts at Harvard University have recommended a total lockdown at a rate of 25 per 100,000.

4) Hospitalizations for #COVID19 dipped by 15 to 1,052 across the province. But the number of ICU stays crept up to by four to 146. The situation is becoming dire at the McGill University Health Centre, which is observing an uptick in hospitalizations. Please see the chart below.

5) The number of active #COVID19 cases increased by 377 to 19,758 across the province. To put those numbers in context, the number of active cases on Dec. 1 was 12,264. This suggests sustained and widespread transmission of the #coronavirus in Quebec.

6) After a two-day decrease, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in Quebec rose by 40, dashing hopes the second way may have crested. Daycares observed an increase of five clusters and the workplace nine. What’s odd is the spike of 26 in schools, despite the fact they’re closed.

7) Nurses are now giving #COVID19 shots across the province (3,942 Thursday), as the chart below makes clear. This is obviously great news. But these are the first of two shots to achieve immunity against the #coronavirus, and many more vaccinations need to be given.

8) As I wrote yesterday, many Quebec hospitals are overwhelmed with #COVID19 patients. This is a nightmare scenario the government desperately sought to avoid, yet it postponed its current partial lockdown until Christmas despite calls by experts to do so more than two weeks ago.

9) And so here we are: Quebec is poised to cross the 8,000 #COVID19 death toll over the weekend. The province added 46 more fatalities Thursday to reach a tally of 7,913. On this, Christmas Eve, I wish peace and joy to everyone. Please stay safe and limit your social contacts.

Addendum: Here is the chart I forgot to include on #COVID19 vaccinations in Tweet 7. My apologies.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

24 Dec

1) Although authorities have begun giving #COVID19 shots to hundreds of people in regions outside Quebec City and Montreal, the second wave intensified Wednesday, outpacing the vaccination effort. In this thread, I will focus on the immense challenges ahead.

2) Aside the from #pandemic itself, the biggest challenge is shoring up Quebec’s health-care system, which is on the verge of collapse. The province reported the highest number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in the second wave Wednesday, 1,067, up by a dozen since the day before.

@mtlgazette

3) What’s more, an outbreak has forced the Montreal Neurological Hospital to close its intensive care unit, according to the @mtlgazette. And CTV News is reporting that adult patients are being treated at the Montreal Children’s Hospital to free up beds for those with #COVID19.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

23 Dec

1) Montreal posted a record single-day increase of nearly 900 #COVID19 cases Tuesday amid a near-doubling of outbreaks in the past two weeks. In this thread, I will examine the worsening situation in the metropolis.

2) On Dec. 8, Montreal recorded 279 #COVID19 clusters. By Tuesday, the number jumped to 478, with the sharpest spikes observed in the workplace (up by 92), health-care institutions (51) and schools (31). This suggests the second wave has yet to peak in the second wave. See below.

3) Major #COVID19 outbreaks are flaring up across the city, as the large circles in the chart below show. Most of the major clusters are occurring in hospitals and nursing homes (the orange circles), followed by the workplace (the grey circles). Sadly, no area has been spared.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

22 Dec

1) Quebec posted 21 more #COVID19 outbreaks across the province Monday, raising the total number to 1,678, the highest to date in the #pandemic. In this short thread, I will assess what impact this trend could have on the government’s so-called holiday pause.

2) When Quebec first made public breakdowns of #COVID19 outbreaks on Nov. 5, the tally at the time was 1,406. In the more than six weeks since those first stats were released, the number of outbreaks in health-care institutions has more than doubled: from 186 to 387 Monday.

3) The #COVID19 spike in health-care institutions suggests hospitalizations may rise despite the closing of non-essential businesses for two weeks, with schoolchildren at home until Jan. 11. This is what the Institut national de sante publique (INSPQ) has to say on the subject:

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

21 Dec

1) Montreal on Sunday reported its highest single-day increase of #COVID19 cases to date in the #pandemic, 786, exactly seven days after posting 748 infections. What’s more, a major outbreak has struck a Pointe-Claire private seniors’ residence.

2) Le Cambridge logged 30 #COVID19 cases in the past 24 hours. A source said a stream of residents has been admitted to the overcrowded emergency room of the Lakeshore General Hospital. The Lakeshore’s ER was filled to 129% capacity on Sunday night.

3) But as bad as things are at Le Cambridge, they’re worse at a seniors’ residence in Laval. L’Angélus posted 31 #COVID19 cases in the past 24 hours, and 63% of the residents are infected. These are clearly signs the second wave is still intensifying.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

20 Dec

1) Quebec on Saturday reported a spike of 72 #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace over the past two days as the #pandemic’s second wave showed no signs of easing. In this thread, I will focus on the sources of these latest clusters of cases.

2) A study by Quebec’s public health institute has found that as of Dec. 12 (the most recent period available) most workplace #COVID19 outbreaks were occurring in the commercial sector, most notably in grocery stores. See the chart below.

3) The sector that came in second place for #COVID19 outbreaks was manufacturing, especially in food processing, followed by construction. Government inspectors have witnessed lax infection control in the construction industry.

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

13 Dec

1) The second wave is now accelerating in Montreal at a much faster rate than in most regions across Quebec as the city posted a record 748 #COVID19 cases. Outbreaks are also surging so fast that authorities can’t even pinpoint some of them.

2) Although #COVID19 incidence rose noticeably since last week in the Chaudière-Appalaches and Capitale-Nationale, Montreal's resurgence has been the most dramatic. The city's seven-day rolling average soared Sunday to 27.76 cases per 100,000, higher than those two other regions.

3) It’s worth noting that since Friday Montreal crossed the threshold set by public health experts at Harvard University to require stay-at-home orders. It’s also worth recalling that 75 Quebec experts urged the government since Monday to impose a “circuit-breaker” lockdown.

Read 10 tweets

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