1) The second wave is now accelerating in Montreal at a much faster rate than in most regions across Quebec as the city posted a record 748 #COVID19 cases. Outbreaks are also surging so fast that authorities can’t even pinpoint some of them.
2) Although #COVID19 incidence rose noticeably since last week in the Chaudière-Appalaches and Capitale-Nationale, Montreal's resurgence has been the most dramatic. The city's seven-day rolling average soared Sunday to 27.76 cases per 100,000, higher than those two other regions.
3) It’s worth noting that since Friday Montreal crossed the threshold set by public health experts at Harvard University to require stay-at-home orders. It’s also worth recalling that 75 Quebec experts urged the government since Monday to impose a “circuit-breaker” lockdown.
4) The escalation in #COVID19 cases has occurred amid record-high testing in the 38,000-range for two days. However, Quebec has now fallen in fifth place, behind Manitoba, among provinces in its testing per 100,000 population. Please see the chart below.
5) The ramp up in Quebec’s #COVID19 testing comes as the province continues to report a steady increase in hospitalizations for the #pandemic illness, for a total of 880, up by 20 since Saturday. The spike in hospitalizations is also occurring amid a mass shortage in nurses.
6) Outbreaks of #COVID19 are now erupting in long-term care centres and hospitals in a manner reminiscent of last spring’s first wave, but this time all across the province. Quebec has confirmed 31 clusters in the past two days in health-care institutions, for a total of 353.
7) Outbreaks rose by 21 to 530 in the workplace, up by one to 91 in daycares and up by six to 378 in schools. What’s unusual is #COVID19 clusters jumped by four to five in the category labelled “unknown,” suggesting the contagion may be accelerating too fast for contact tracers.
8) At the neighborhood level, Montreal for the first time in the #pandemic has five health districts that have each posted more than 80 #COVID19 cases in a single day. What’s more, as the chart below makes clear, these health districts are spread all over the city.
9) Montreal declared one #COVID death Sunday. All the other 32 fatalities occurred outside the city, reflecting the fact the case incidence was higher regionally for several weeks. But it also means Montreal can expect an upswing next month in deaths, given its latest case stats.
10) Perhaps the most concerning development is that there are no signs this second wave has peaked. Nursing resources are depleted, and some nurses have had their Christmas vacations cancelled. The system can bear no more. Will the Premier take action tomorrow? End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

13 Dec
1) Montreal posted the highest number of #COVID19 cases of any Canadian city on Saturday and its second highest single-day total since the start of the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show why the second wave has yet to peak amid rising hospitalizations.
2) The province recorded 16,176 active cases Saturday, up by 234 from the day before. On Dec. 1, Quebec registered 12,264 active #COVID19 infections. Quebec set a record in analyzed tests two days ago, 38,579, but overall, daily testing numbers have risen slightly since Dec. 1.
3) Montreal’s rolling seven-day average of #COVID19 cases climbed to 26.13 per 100,000 residents Saturday, above Harvard University’s 25-case threshold warranting a “circuit-breaker” lockdown. By comparison, Toronto recorded a seven-day average of 22.5 cases per 100,000.
Read 9 tweets
12 Dec
1) Quebec set two more grim records Friday during the #pandemic's second wave: a single-day increase of 56 #COVID19 outbreaks (most of them in schools) and 53 more deaths. In this thread, I will ask why the government needs more time to decide on a "circuit-breaker" lockdown.
2) The province is now gripped by no fewer than 1,338 #COVID19 clusters in a wide range of settings. Nine more occurred in CHSLDs Friday, two more in daycares, 22 more in schools and 20 more in the workplace. See the chart below.
3) Hospitalizations for the #pandemic illness rose by 23 to 871. Intensive care stays for #COVID19 climbed by 10 to 123. Remember, these hospitalizations are occurring amid a mass shortage of nurses and other medical professionals and a ramp down in elective surgeries.
Read 11 tweets
12 Dec
1) Premier François Legault contended on Thursday that the situation in the province’s long-term care centres has improved by 90% this fall compared with last spring. In this thread, I will fact-check this assertion.
2) Legault asserted this twice Thursday during a news conference as he defended his government’s management of long-term care centres, known in French as CHSLDs. He attributed the decrease in #COVID19 deaths to date in the second wave to the hiring of 10,000 employees.
3) This is what Legault said: “So that’s why we saw the number of deaths reduced by 90% this fall compared to the spring, thanks to the improvements we made in the summer.” But did, in fact, the number of #COVID19 deaths in CHSLDs plummet by 90% this fall?
Read 11 tweets
11 Dec
1) Montreal posted a 7% #COVID19 testing positivity rate on Thursday, 2.1% higher than New York City’s rate. Montreal also reported a record 648 cases, 90 more than Toronto. In this thread, I will focus on the rapidly deteriorating situation in the metropolis.
2) Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of Montreal’s public health department, noted the #coronavirus's reproduction rate is 1.37, signalling that the incidence of #COVID19 will rise in the coming days. She also finally acknowledged school-aged children are driving transmission of the virus.
3) But it may be what Drouin didn’t say that’s more alarming: The city’s seven-day-rolling average of #COVID19 cases reached 25.56 per 100,000 residents, the threshold Harvard University experts have recommended as warranting a general lockdown in the #pandemic.
Read 11 tweets
10 Dec
1) Quebec on Wednesday declared the sharpest daily increase in #COVID19 outbreaks in weeks, 31, with most of the new clusters arising in schools. In this thread, I will focus on transmission of the #coronavirus among teenagers and children in the province.
2) Of the 31 new #COVID19 outbreaks Wednesday, Quebec reported 12 in schools to 341, nine in daycares to 81, nine in health-care institutions to 306 and three in the workplace to 474. If you lump schools in with daycares, the total is 21 in a sector of mostly children and teens.
3) Dr. Horacio Arruda, Quebec’s chief public health officer, acknowledged the increase in #COVID19 transmission in a National Assembly hearing Wednesday. At present, there are 3,320 active cases among students and 918 among school staff, the highest to date in the #pandemic.
Read 10 tweets
9 Dec
1) In just a week’s time, 61 more outbreaks have flared up all over Montreal, as the comparison chart below shows dramatically. In this thread, I will examine this surge in #COVID19 clusters across the metropolis, yet another sign the second wave is intensifying. Image
2) As you can glimpse from the chart, #COVID19 outbreaks in daycares and schools have sprouted up in Saint-Léonard and Longue-Pointe (circled in red) in the east end of Montreal. Further east, in Anjou and Montreal East, there are lots of workplace outbreaks. Image
3) On the West Island, major #COVID19 outbreaks have erupted in health-care institutions. There have also been some big workplace clusters in Saint-Laurent's industrial park, circled in red. This graphic one-week comparison illustrates this rapid proliferation in outbreaks. Image
Read 11 tweets

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