THREAD on #Ethiopia & region IV: #Eritrea withdraws from #Tigray, further instability looms

After repeated anecdotal information that Eritrean soldiers who took part in #EthiopianCivilWar had returned home, there are credible indicators Asmara may have pulled out its forces.
We won’t know that if these withdrawals apply to all Eritrean mechanized, infantry & specialized units & advisors until there is adequate opening up of Tigray; & that is unlikely to happen until Eritrean presence ends or kis reduced to imperceptible/deniable levels.
Not clear if withdrawal means #Eritrean & #Ethiopian leaders r satisfied with #TPLF's ‘liquidation’ or if Asmara is cutting losses to preserve gains. Pr. Isaias could be recalling troops to secure home front from internal challenge, threats TPLF still poses, & destabilization.
Whatever the case, #Ethiopia appears to be where Isaias wants it: WEAK! Without large Eritrean command/combat personnel & technical knowhow, federal troops & regional militias unlikely to maintain territorial gains so far made much less turn them into political/security returns.
It is not coincidence TPLF's been actively counterattacking lately & there seems to be intense fighting in parts of region. Loss of territory freed #TPLF of administrative & other responsibilities, enabling it to attack at time/place of its choosing & cause substantial harm.
#Addis had been stretched too thin & took added burden in #Tigray. Recent dev'ts don't promise improvement: dozens of small-scale conflicts, violent attacks against civilians & open border clashes with Sudan have deleterious effect on Ethiopia’s effective governance/stability.
Thus, what prompted #Eritrea's withdrawal from #Tigray may be of little immediate policy significance; that it has withdrawn or is doing so, however, is consequential. Developments in the next weeks likely to reveal full extent of its implications. I've no sides to this war.
I only want to see: 1 safety/security of innocent civilians from brunt of the conflict; 2 success of @AbiyAhmedAli for Ethiopia's peace/prosperity; 3. #Eritrea immediately & completely withdrawn b/c it has its own worse domestic problems & more. How can that be too much to ask?

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More from @Prof_Awet

22 Nov
THREAD on #Ethiopia & the region II
After 2 weeks of rebuffing mediation to ongoing #EthiopianCivilWar, PM @AbiyAhmedAli is begrudgingly warming up to that possibility. I pray for his courage for it takes courage to make peace, & for innocent civilians’ sake, I wish him success
Intricacies of possible mediation demand clear-eyed reading of what may have contributed to such coming out of one’s corner – even if lukewarm. Moreover, any dragging of one's feet to immediately ceasefire & allow humanitarian access brings near a catastrophe of epic proportions
Ethiopian federal forces & aligned regional militias are measuring success by territorial gains. A close monitoring of what appears to be transpiring on the frontlines, however, contradicts this. Gov't advances appear to be feeble & gains stoppable - if not reversible.
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