As I’ve been saying for months now

1. A deal was always going to happen
2. UK rightwing media was not in the place to let May do it
3. As disaster of no deal + COVID became clear Tories accepted a deal had to be done
4. Boris delayed deal to last moment possible to hide scrutiny
2/

So ignore “instant takes” from
Leavers & remainers.

Real issue
Can the UK deviate from EU standards without either restrictions to single market and/or long negotiations.

If the answer is no - then essentially it’s May’s deal with a few added decorations & disguises.
3/

The whole fish thing was ridiculous.
Again as I’ve said all along if fish is the only issue left..a compromise would be found. We eat each other’s fish and both sides know they need to protect fish stocks.

Any claim of “EU victory” here is as silly as any “UK win” claim.
4/

Ultimately it may actually come down to how much the EU & UK are prepared to risk being drawn into long future negotiations over Standards & LPF...

...and the answer to this might not be known for some years...
5/

In other words there are levels of ambiguity built into the deal (& it’s implications) which mean that both sides can claim victory.

UK has won back some theoretical sovereignty...but it might well be the case that few UK govts will bother trying to actually risk using it.

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More from @nicktolhurst

25 Dec
One of the most misunderstood Brexit factors is Britain’s natural advantage - and massive economic assets - education.

While remainers are responding. understandably, emotionally to UKs Erasmus opt out - there’s something lacking in the debate - what is UKs plan here?

A thread.
2/

What many fail to grasp is - as English is more or less obligatory for EU youngsters - there’s always far more EUers wanting to come to UK than any other country. And particularly Brits who are shared out over many countries.

This has 2 effects..
3/

As Erasmus is largely reciprocal this means UK academic institutions don’t have to try too hard while EU colleges tend to be generous with Brits. I know my Erasmus year was much better run than German students going in opposite direction. They couldn’t afford to lose us.
Read 9 tweets
23 Dec
+UPDATE+

EU sources reporting a deal reached between EU & UK teams in Brussels.

Final go ahead from London end still unclear.
2/

Deal “ready for go ahead”.

Media being brought into play with briefings.

Will be a very strange Christmas with politicians/media working thru this tomorrow.

Remember, unlike the British, most Europeans (like the Royal family) consider 24th December as “the” Christmas Day.
3/

Bloomberg have just reported this in the last 10 minutes.

Read 7 tweets
18 Dec
+UPDATE+

UK Civil Servants believe the UK Govt was involved in a fradulent lobby scheme worth tens of millions overseen by a Conservative MP and former minister.
2/

The former minister of transport - Chris Grayling - is suspected of agreeing a prior contract with Hutchison Port Holdings against the "Ministerial Code" paying him £100,000 a year while still a minister.
3/

The £100,000 a year payment to Chris Grayling kicked in exactly a year after he left the Ministry to technically comply with govt. code.

The payment is nominally for just 7 hours a week "work",
Apart from his stint at the Ministry, Grayling has no transport experience.
Read 5 tweets
15 Dec
+UPDATE+

Conservative MPs being told by senior Cabinet Ministers that a EU-UK trade deal is now more likely.
2/

UK govt has agreed to EU's "level playing field" principles but with a sytem & form that would "respect British sovereignty".

Divergence from the agreed "level playing field" principles could be monitored without the EU being the "sole arbiter".
3/

Understand that UK govt thinks this should be enough to persuade some ERG members that the UK would then not face "unilateral punishment by the EU" - which was consided a key fear.
Read 6 tweets
15 Dec
+UPDATE+

Republic of Ireland’s trade with Great Britain falls to historic low.

Ireland’s trade with GB (ie. UK minus N. Ireland) is heading for significantly less than 10% of its total world trade.

Note:
Intra-Irish trade still forms circa 10% of IRL-UK trade.
2/

Additionally,

Ireland is one of the few EU countries which has consistently recorded trade surpluses with UK (due to a variety of sectoral & historical reasons). This means that a reorientation of IRL to EU may hit UK firms more.
3/

What’s oft not appreciated in UK is Britain’s trade surplus with Ireland is - despite 🇮🇪 size - one of UK’s largest.

In other words - if UK is serious about trade - maintaining closest possible Irish trade access for UK should have been a key objective.
Read 4 tweets
5 Dec
+UPDATE+

European Commission President Von der Leyen
will issue a televised statement to Brexit....tonight following her personal phone call with Boris Johnson this evening.
2/

Statement due from Von der Leyen statement at 1900CET/1800 UK time
Read 5 tweets

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