Share this page!

David Henig Profile picture
Twitter logo
26 Dec, 17 tweets, 5 min read
Quick intro to more analysis later - since Freeports are mentioned in this article worth making the point that it seems to me under the UK-EU deal that if the UK provides subsidies for them, or relaxes labour or environmental rules in them, the EU can take retaliatory action.
There has never been level playing field content like this in a trade deal. The idea it is any kind of UK win, when the UK's opening position was no enforceable commitments whatsoever, is ridiculous.
The EU can take retaliatory action against the UK if we weaken labour standards, weaken pretty firm climate change targets, unfairly subsidise, or just in general seem to be out of line. There are processes to follow, but it looks like the PM did it again...
Final one for now. Quite how Labour gets itself in such a fuss about whether to support a deal with the strongest labour and environment commitments ever seen in a trade deal is a sign of just how far it hasn't moved on from leaving.
PS well... (sorry DAG). It certainly didn't have a good effect. And I think if we had settled LPF issues with the EU much earlier there is a good chance the conditions would have been far less stringent. By making an issue, we made it much worse.
Interesting...
Oh, here's the text. Have a quick flick through it, be astonished at the dull legalese, wait for specialist takes. Well that's my plan anyway...
So the UK signed up for ECJ as well, in a, shall we say, limited and specific way. Inevitable I think, but a powerful precedent.
I am incidentally very much looking forward to distinguishing between those in the ERG who drop their principled objections to follow the prevailing political wind (true followers of Johnson?) and those who note that Johnson never saw a UK red line he wasn't prepared to relax.
Rules of origin quotas. Catnip for @SamuelMarcLowe.
Most of the year has actually been internal negotiations within parties, the crucial bit that the media misses. And in the UK the need for a deal to safeguard car manufacturing in the short term seems to have won in the end.
This is the Brussels Effect.

(Incidentally I'm reading as well, but copying the best points I see from others).
Absolutely this (from a former negotiator). My evolving conclusion is that a UK failure to reach a realistic internal position sufficiently early on LPF and fish in particular has meant ending up with a worse deal than expected in these areas.
On even simpler, talking tough to the domestic gallery when competing with a very experienced trade superpower is a very poor negotiating strategy, particularly if your leader has form for folding when the going gets tough.
Alternate view.
And more worth considering, especially in comparison to Conservative MPs with their Number 10 briefs claiming improbably the opposite.
A weak deal for UK agricultural exporters in terms of checks.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Henig

David Henig Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
27 Dec
Just bringing together my various bits and pieces on the UK-EU. The first reactions - a significant agreement... linkedin.com/pulse/signific…
Winners and losers of the UK-EU deal. linkedin.com/pulse/uk-eu-tr…
Why this was always going to be a problem - regulatory soverignty v free trade involves trade offs... uktradeforum.net/2020/07/28/the…
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Dec
Breathless accounts of brilliant negotiating are oddly unaccompanied by statements of UK wins.
Twice the PM has signed up to deals he previously said no PM could sign up for. The level of self-deception in turning these into triumphs is off the scale.
A wise man has suggested that Johnson's self delusions are good for the UK in the way he folds under EU pressure but denies it - that this actually delivers the best result.
Read 12 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Dec
Now in article length, my thoughts on winners and losers from the UK-EU trade deal. Both sides achieved their top priorities, just they turned out not to be as claimed in the case of the UK. linkedin.com/pulse/uk-eu-tr…
What were UK government priorities in the negotiation? We claimed it was fish and sovereignty, and that without these we would walk away. It turned out these weren't the highest priorities, because of a repeated error of ignoring the internal negotiation.
This is the heart of the content of the deal in terms of winners and losers. In the end the UK prioritised the deal, and zero tariffs, over fish or the absence of level playing field conditions.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Dec
I'm still wading through the UK-EU agreement, but in the words of a famed US election watcher, I've seen enough. I'm calling who won...

Actually calling two winners.

The EU. And the Conservative Party.
The EU delivered their top line priorities - protection of the single market through the most stringent level playing field conditions ever seen in a trade deal, protection of the withdrawal agreement, and also of EU fishing fleets. Good result for them.
As for the Conservative Party, they delivered virtually no top line priorities (the ECJ is in there, fishing waters barely reclaimed, Northern Ireland under different rules, lots of LPF) but still declared victory, and seem more united than the Labour Party. Superb result.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Dec
Why UK fishing fleets believe they have been sold out by the PM.
Must say on reading the fishing text the extent to which the UK conceded is simply jaw dropping. Our share of the allowable catch goes up and .... that's it. Any subsequent attempt to change this and we may face tariffs on the catch.
Unsurprising criticism. theguardian.com/business/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
24 Dec
For the last time today, a link to my analysis of the deal - a significant moment for the UK politically as we move on from 5 years of Brexit division. Just a few thoughts about content before Christmas... linkedin.com/pulse/signific…
Most significantly, the 1 January change in trading relations is still abrupt, still the biggest such one day change in modern history. The deal will ease some elements, but not fundamentally change it. It will be interesting to see how views of the deal evolve from this point.
Who won / lost - significant compromises all round. The UK has to accept the strongest level playing field terms ever included in a trade agreement, the EU an annual fishing quota exercise after a 6 year transition. Both seem to have dropped some asks.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DavidHenigUK has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DavidHenigUK!

Read all threads by @DavidHenigUK