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David Henig Profile picture
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26 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Why UK fishing fleets believe they have been sold out by the PM.
Must say on reading the fishing text the extent to which the UK conceded is simply jaw dropping. Our share of the allowable catch goes up and .... that's it. Any subsequent attempt to change this and we may face tariffs on the catch.
Unsurprising criticism. theguardian.com/business/2020/…
More on fish...

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
27 Dec
Grateful for the shout out in the thread. Oddly in the end I think Johnson compromised on the sovereignty to safeguard the trade (and particularly Nissan) but clearly did so in a way that read party and public opinion so well. Which I find interesting and under explored.
The person who was sniffing the politics of UK-EU most accurately for a couple of months was @Sime0nStylites, down to the timing of particular UK negotiating moves or 'flounces'. The EU incidentally were unmoved on deal or not, pure focus on their goals.
As to the trade contents of a deal, that was overwhelmingly predicted a few months ago. The only particular Johnson win was on timing. He wanted it all done by December and it is, and there were a lot of doubters. But much will now be added behind the scenes.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Dec
Just bringing together my various bits and pieces on the UK-EU. The first reactions - a significant agreement... linkedin.com/pulse/signific…
Winners and losers of the UK-EU deal. linkedin.com/pulse/uk-eu-tr…
Why this was always going to be a problem - regulatory soverignty v free trade involves trade offs... uktradeforum.net/2020/07/28/the…
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Dec
Breathless accounts of brilliant negotiating are oddly unaccompanied by statements of UK wins.
Twice the PM has signed up to deals he previously said no PM could sign up for. The level of self-deception in turning these into triumphs is off the scale.
A wise man has suggested that Johnson's self delusions are good for the UK in the way he folds under EU pressure but denies it - that this actually delivers the best result.
Read 12 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Dec
Now in article length, my thoughts on winners and losers from the UK-EU trade deal. Both sides achieved their top priorities, just they turned out not to be as claimed in the case of the UK. linkedin.com/pulse/uk-eu-tr…
What were UK government priorities in the negotiation? We claimed it was fish and sovereignty, and that without these we would walk away. It turned out these weren't the highest priorities, because of a repeated error of ignoring the internal negotiation.
This is the heart of the content of the deal in terms of winners and losers. In the end the UK prioritised the deal, and zero tariffs, over fish or the absence of level playing field conditions.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Dec
I'm still wading through the UK-EU agreement, but in the words of a famed US election watcher, I've seen enough. I'm calling who won...

Actually calling two winners.

The EU. And the Conservative Party.
The EU delivered their top line priorities - protection of the single market through the most stringent level playing field conditions ever seen in a trade deal, protection of the withdrawal agreement, and also of EU fishing fleets. Good result for them.
As for the Conservative Party, they delivered virtually no top line priorities (the ECJ is in there, fishing waters barely reclaimed, Northern Ireland under different rules, lots of LPF) but still declared victory, and seem more united than the Labour Party. Superb result.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Dec
Quick intro to more analysis later - since Freeports are mentioned in this article worth making the point that it seems to me under the UK-EU deal that if the UK provides subsidies for them, or relaxes labour or environmental rules in them, the EU can take retaliatory action.
There has never been level playing field content like this in a trade deal. The idea it is any kind of UK win, when the UK's opening position was no enforceable commitments whatsoever, is ridiculous.
The EU can take retaliatory action against the UK if we weaken labour standards, weaken pretty firm climate change targets, unfairly subsidise, or just in general seem to be out of line. There are processes to follow, but it looks like the PM did it again...
Read 17 tweets

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