While we're all digesting the details, quick point

There are two separate questions here:

1⃣ Is this a good deal for the UK vs what we had
2⃣ Is this a good FTA

And I think we should focus on the latter

/1
We’ve known the answer to the first question for years. The economic impact of an FTA is preferable only to a no deal outcome. But we’ve also known that these were the two option on the table for a while now.

/2
While I understand the sadness of losing so much, that actually happened a while back. And if you look at the EU list of what we've lost, most of it was to be expected

/3
So the better question is is this a good FTA as in how does it compare to other such agreements?

FTAs have their limits, quite a few of them actually.

/4
Simplest example, saying it's not a good FTA cause it doesn't remove border formalities is pointless- FTAs never do. That decision was made when we decided to leave the SM+CU.

/5
So let's judge this deal within limits of what FTAs normally achieve and see if it goes further rather than comment on how much it's taking away from us.

After all, it was that or no deal.

/end

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More from @AnnaJerzewska

20 Dec
Once more, a reminder that for many firms this is the backdrop against which they are trying to finalise their Brexit prep:

1⃣ Continued uncertainty regarding deal/no-deal (tariffs)
2⃣ Ongoing pandemic and the impact on operations (staff, closures, stock)

/1
3⃣ Global supply chain crisis
4⃣ Congestion around the UK’s major container ports
5⃣ Disruptions at the UK's key ro-ro ports and queues

/2
6⃣ New lockdown rules and the loss of key retail period
7⃣ The new travel/movement restrictions and further delays this will cause to moving stock

/3
Read 6 tweets
20 Dec
Missed this. 18% of SMEs that believe they will be negatively impacted consider themselves prepared for 1 Jan (according to @fsb_policy).

18%. That is less than last year. With less than 2 weeks to go.

/1


eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk/mag/news/less-…
68% of SMEs say it is due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the future deal and only 22% say it's due to covid which is surprising.

/2
While the Chairman calling for a "pro-enterprise free trade agreement" I hope it's clear that would only help in some areas.

/3
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
Just as a reminder - without a freeze/ implementation period or some sort of derogation - no business on either side will be able to use the UK-EU FTA to avoid paying tariffs on 1 Jan even if we get one tomorrow.

It's already too late.

/1
Businesses simply won't have enough time to familiarise themselves with rules of origin, figure out whether their products meet them (larger companies have hundreds of SKUs) and understand what the certification requirements are.

/2
It is expected that companies would be able to self-certify origin under the UK-EU FTA but that is not always that straight forward and sometimes requires prior steps.

/3
Read 7 tweets
12 Dec
🚢This has been happening for the last few months: ships at anchor waiting, shipping lines cancelling orders and diverting, largest shipping lines refusing to accept new bookings

/1


ft.com/content/eb2105…
In the UK, this just the beginning - soon to be accompanied by the perfect Brexit storm.

/2
It was not the shock of the pandemic that sent shockwaves across the entire logistics industry but the rebound of trade in recent months.

/3
Read 5 tweets
10 Dec
It's here! 🚨🚨🚨

/1

gov.uk/government/pub…
And the long-awaited criteria for the determination of goods at risk / not at risk of entering the EU market for GB- NI movements (we've been talking about this one for over a year!)

/2


assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Derogation for SMEs on commercial processing which is part of the "at risk" criteria

/3 Image
Read 12 tweets
9 Dec
With the PM in Brussels, here is another reminder. On the deal vs no deal. And borders.

We need a deal. It’s in everyone’s interest. It will reduce tariffs (perhaps even full tariff/quota-free) and offer a range of other simplifications. BUT everything will still change

/1
One albeit (over)simplified way of looking at it is 👇

You have a border and what happens behind it.

⏺️Border barriers (friction, formalities, tariffs) and
⏺️Behind the border measures (regulation, alignment, cooperation etc)

/2
On the border barriers front, a deal would remove tariffs.

That's pretty much it.

Plus perhaps some additional simplifications, derogations (maybe some on SPS stuff depending on how far both parties want to go).

/3
Read 11 tweets

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