While we're all digesting the details, quick point
There are two separate questions here:
1⃣ Is this a good deal for the UK vs what we had
2⃣ Is this a good FTA
And I think we should focus on the latter
/1
We’ve known the answer to the first question for years. The economic impact of an FTA is preferable only to a no deal outcome. But we’ve also known that these were the two option on the table for a while now.
/2
While I understand the sadness of losing so much, that actually happened a while back. And if you look at the EU list of what we've lost, most of it was to be expected
/3
So the better question is is this a good FTA as in how does it compare to other such agreements?
FTAs have their limits, quite a few of them actually.
/4
Simplest example, saying it's not a good FTA cause it doesn't remove border formalities is pointless- FTAs never do. That decision was made when we decided to leave the SM+CU.
/5
So let's judge this deal within limits of what FTAs normally achieve and see if it goes further rather than comment on how much it's taking away from us.
After all, it was that or no deal.
/end
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Just as a reminder - without a freeze/ implementation period or some sort of derogation - no business on either side will be able to use the UK-EU FTA to avoid paying tariffs on 1 Jan even if we get one tomorrow.
It's already too late.
/1
Businesses simply won't have enough time to familiarise themselves with rules of origin, figure out whether their products meet them (larger companies have hundreds of SKUs) and understand what the certification requirements are.
/2
It is expected that companies would be able to self-certify origin under the UK-EU FTA but that is not always that straight forward and sometimes requires prior steps.
/3
🚢This has been happening for the last few months: ships at anchor waiting, shipping lines cancelling orders and diverting, largest shipping lines refusing to accept new bookings
/1
And the long-awaited criteria for the determination of goods at risk / not at risk of entering the EU market for GB- NI movements (we've been talking about this one for over a year!)
/2
With the PM in Brussels, here is another reminder. On the deal vs no deal. And borders.
We need a deal. It’s in everyone’s interest. It will reduce tariffs (perhaps even full tariff/quota-free) and offer a range of other simplifications. BUT everything will still change
/1
One albeit (over)simplified way of looking at it is 👇
You have a border and what happens behind it.
⏺️Border barriers (friction, formalities, tariffs) and
⏺️Behind the border measures (regulation, alignment, cooperation etc)
/2
On the border barriers front, a deal would remove tariffs.
That's pretty much it.
Plus perhaps some additional simplifications, derogations (maybe some on SPS stuff depending on how far both parties want to go).
/3