For all those still arguing that “only" around 0,1% of people infected with #covid19 die:
This is nonsense!
The US has around 330 million people and it has now recorded more than 330,000 deaths.
That means 0,1% of the *entire population* has died. And #sarscov2 still spreading.
UK:
about 66 million people
more than 69,000 deaths from #covid19
France: about 67 million people
more than 62,000 deaths
Mexico:
about 126 million population
more than 121,000 deaths
Even worse:
Belgium:
11,5 million population
more than 19,000 deaths
We had a lot of good data already showing that the IFR of #covid19 is much higher than 0,1%.
Now we have a lot of places where around 0,1% of the entire population have died and the virus is still spreading.
So anyone still telling this lie, is deliberately ignoring reality.
If you want to get into the weeds on IFR, of course, it makes sense to distinguish age group or divide countries into those with high and low median age etc.
But the main point: This virus can clearly kill a lot more than 0,1% of those it infects.
And: It’s not just about deaths!
On Germany:
We have about 30,000 deaths so far in a population of about 83 million.
That means another 50,000 people can die just by us catching up to the level of death that countries like UK, US and France have already reached.
50,000 deaths! While vaccines are on the way!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
What do we know about the new #SARSCoV2 variants? How worried should we be? What does it mean?
I promised to summarize the main points from my reporting over the last few days.
So here is my latest story and a thread (and then it’s Christmas) sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/u…
First: I’ve said “We don’t know yet” a lot over the last few days and we still don’t know most of what we want to know about these variants. Getting good answers takes times. Science takes time. But we are learning a lot fast and we know a lot more today than three days ago.
The UK variant:
I explained how B.1.1.7 caught scientists’ attention in my first story on this and why they were worried (sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/m…).
That worry has only increased. There is now more data available and it points to this variant really being more transmissible.
Some good news (and incredibly fast work) on one of the mutations scientists are worried about: N501Y.
In these lab experiments serum from recovered #covid19 patients was just as good at neutralizing virus with the mutation as without it.
This does not say anything about whether the mutation could make the virus more transmissible but it suggest the mutation alone at least does not mean the virus can widely infect people again.
Of course, both UK and SA variant have several additional mutations...
I will let other people figure out how to cite a tweet in a scientific publication ;)
It’s becoming clearer that one main hypothesis that scientists are looking at with B.1.1.7 is whether its advantage could be that it is better at infecting children. There are a TON of caveats, but this is one possibility that is being explored.
The idea is very simple: #SARSCoV2 appears to be a bit worse at infecting children than adults. If the mutations in B.1.1.7 allow this variant to bind more tightly to the ACE2 receptor on human cells that could essentially make it as good at infecting children as adults.
Like I said a TON of caveats. Maybe most importantly: the UK had a lockdown while schools were kept open, so you would expect the epidemic to shift more to children anyway and that of course can make it look like there is something going on with this variant in children.
There’s a lot of concern and confusion right now about the new #sarscov2 variant identified in UK. I’ve spent today and yesterday talking to a dozen people working on this. My story is here: sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/m…
Thread to come (may be long and slow)
There are a ton of things to explain, dozens of questions to discuss and I won’t be able to cover more than a tiny part here now. So three general things up front: 1. Expect more threads and stories on this from me
“We urge governments throughout Europe to agree on clearly formulated common goals, coordinate their efforts, develop regionally adapted strategies to reach the goals, and thereby work resolutely towards low case numbers”, @CiesekSandra, @ViolaPriesemann and others in @TheLancet
The lack of a European strategy is something scientists and public health experts have pointed out again and again and it’s good to see it clearly formulated by a group of prominent researchers thelancet.com/journals/lance…
The authors also give a good, succinct summary of arguments for going for low #covid19 case numbers: 1. saving lives 2. saving the economy 3. control is more effective 4. makes TTI feasible 5. natural acquired herd immunity is not an option 6. no need for rapid policy changes
Meine Kollegen vom @pandemiapodcast und ich haben viele Fragen bekommen in den vergangenen Wochen zu den neuen Impstoffen, zu ihrer schnellen Entwicklung, ihrer Sicherheit, zu Impfbereitschaft und Impfpflicht. Wir wollten das natürlich aufnehmen.
@pandemiapodcast Die neue Folge ist darum ein etwas wilder Ritt querfeldein und wir binden zusammen, worüber wir in den ersten Folgen der zweiten Staffel gesprochen haben: Impfstoffe, Pocken, Masern und eben #SARSCoV2. Die Folge gibt es hier: viertausendhertz.de/pan16/
Als Nächstes dann Gelbfieber!