I'll post the rates tomorrow with the racial breakdown. For now, let's go with the raw totals.
What do we have from today? Well, Democrats probably added about 8K votes to their margin, per @joe__gantt's estimates. That's not as much as they'd have been hoping for, to be blunt.
But let's also remember that the second weekend in the general election was a pro-GOP day. So this is certainly not the worst-case scenario everyone worried about. All of that helps the Democrats. They'd have liked more, but...it's Boxing Day.
Tomorrow, it appears as if DeKalb, Columbia, Fulton, and Gwinnett are open. This will likely result in another pro-Democratic day, but almost certainly with more votes cast. How much? I got no idea, but probably around 30K-40K. So Democrats will look to add about 10K to the lead.
We'll enter the last 4 days of early voting with approximately a (roughly) 190K vote lead for Democrats, in all likelihood. That'll leave the GOP with some ground to make up.
Turnout next week is the million dollar question. If it continues dropping off the way it has the last 5 days, the race would be almost over.
But if they GOP get a surge of voters in their areas, it's a coin flip again. Next week should tell us a lot more.
Yes, I would have liked a bit more turnout today.
No, I'm not that stunned given that only 3 counties were open (Gwinnett/Fulton the only populous ones).
Yes, I still have it at leans Democrat -- a low-turnout weekend day where I didn't expect any votes doesn't change it.
(I'm surprised, to be sure, at the low turnout, but I didn't realize that only three counties were open today! Given that, I have to say my initial shock at the low vote totals has just been replaced by "only 3 counties? well, that's not as much as I'd have liked, but whatever")
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Appears, on first glance, that the GOP got...a status quo day.
They did not want a status quo day.
Per @joe__gantt and @ADincgor's early vote scraping, it appears today was a net Democrat day, 51.5-48.5 (or thereabouts), which is below the current early vote margin of 54.5-45.5.
However, it's another day where the Democrats padded their lead, which makes it worse for the GOP in terms of the margin needed on election day, which means that while both sides can take something from today, the GOP probably would have wanted more.
Part of me wants to put up an interactive system for our model allowing you to play with e-day turnout. But with a research deadline tomorrow, that's near-impossible given the time constraints. But if you want scenarios modeled, reply with them and I'll get to it when possible.
I wrote the precinct model in python, so it's not that hard to plug in specific scenarios and model them.
If you want a scenario modeled, include the following:
1) Number of VBM votes between now and Jan 5. 2) Number of advanced votes left, and the final advanced voting margin (you can see current margins in the pinned model tweet) 3) Election day turnout as a % of total electorate.
🚨 PRECINCT MODEL RELEASED FOR GEORGIA SENATE RUNOFFS🚨
This model, made by me and @ADincgor, take the November electorate and projects it onto the current electorate. We display it alongside our county model.
We do not do a GOP-friendly modification because while the county model corrects for the VBM lag in Democratic counties, this precinct model does not (and cannot).
In our rough estimate, this roughly cancels out the GOP boost gained by the model, but if it doesn't, you'll see the margins become more pro-GOP between now and 12/31 and more pro-Dem as mail ballots are processed between 1/1 and 1/5.
What were you expecting? It's Christmas Eve and there was snow in Atlanta with just a couple counties open. Everyone there was probably freezing their #Ossoff.