Thread by @lxeagle17

🚨GEORGIA UPDATE 12/26 (TOTAL + VBM + IN-PERSON)🚨

Total Votes: 2,097,060 (+26,073)

Percent of registered voters: 27.1%
White: 55.4% (56.5% in general)
Black: 31.5% (27.7% general)
Hispanic: 2.1% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.4% (2.6% general)

COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 27.1%
DeKalb: 32.5%
Cobb: 27%
Fulton: 31.7%
Gwinnett: 29.1%
Chatham: 18.9%
Muscogee: 23.7%
Columbia: 27.7%
Houston: 28.2%
Baldwin: 16.2%
Fayette: 33.8%
Hall: 24.1%
Clayton: 25.4%
Forsyth: 33.5%

IN-PERSON EARLY VOTES

Total Votes: 1,361,844 (+15,737)
Percent of registered voters: 17.6%
White: 55.7% (58.2% in general)
Black: 31.5% (26.4% general)
Hispanic: 2.1% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2% (2.0% general)

COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 17.6%
DeKalb: 20.4%
Cobb: 11.8%
Fulton: 22.8%
Gwinnett: 18%
Chatham: 11%
Muscogee: 17.6%
Columbia: 18.7%
Houston: 16.4%
Baldwin: 11%
Fayette: 24.6%
Hall: 15.5%
Clayton: 16.7%
Forsyth: 23.5%

VBM DATA

Accepted Votes: 735,216 (+10,336)
White: 54.8% (53% general)
Black: 31.6% (30.3% general)
Return Rate: 54.5%

Requested Votes: 1,347,856 (+7,468)
Request Rate: 17.4%
White: 51.6% (51.2% general)
Black: 32.7% (31.4% general)
66+: 46.1% (40.7% general)

COUNTY REQUEST RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 17.4%
DeKalb: 24.7%
Cobb: 25.6%
Fulton: 17.8%
Gwinnett: 19.9%
Chatham: 19.6%
Muscogee: 17.3%
Columbia: 14.2%
Houston: 18.7%
Baldwin: 19.6%
Fayette: 19.3%
Hall: 15.2%
Clayton: 16.6%
Forsyth: 16.3%

Yesterday was a net positive for Ds in terms of vote gain, but a slightly disappointing one still because they would really have liked to add a bit more. However, this still didn't add anything to the GOP's totals, so...it's a wash, really.

Fulton saw decent enough turnout, and it appears as if Asians and Hispanics voted in decent numbers yesterday, which helps with two problem points for Democratic points. Gwinnett is now squarely on track once again, after suffering from turnout issues earlier in the cycle.

The surge in the Atlanta metro (DeKalb/Fulton/Clayton) in terms of statewide share is still a problem for Rs because it comes at the cost of their exurban/heavily non-college counties statewide shares, making the math worse for them.

Today is another pro-D day, in all likelihood (expecting 30K-40K votes today), with Gwinnett/Fulton/DeKalb/Columbia open, so the GOP will look to rectify the exurban turnout more this week. So, where does this leave the race?

The model currently estimates Ossoff +1.7 as the final race margin, and we expect it to grow to +1.8 or +1.9 by the end of today. Their overall vote lead should be around 190K going into Monday.

I’m working with Ali on a precinct model that will hopefully give us more detailed data and a slightly better projection, but that’s still a bit away. In the meantime…

The model estimates that Democrats are winning the VBM + EV by 54.2-45.8 in total currently, which is up from 52.3-47.7 in the general election. They are losing the in-person early vote 51.3-48.7, compared to 53.5-46.5 in November (I think).

Assuming we get around 780K in-person votes next week, the GOP would need about 57% of the in-person vote to get back to where they were in November. That is…not something I find highly likely currently, but it is possible.

If the GOP manage to split the VBM/EV delta between Nov. and now to half of what it is currently, so they’ll get 53.2-46.8 as the margin going into election day. This would leave them needing roughly 62.8% on election day, assuming 825K votes (84% of November, 20% of electorate)

Their 2 party share in November was 61.6-38.4. So all indicators right now point to the GOP needing a serious overperformance between now and Thursday and then another overperformance on January 5th to close the gap and win the race.

All of this is possible, but I do not find it especially likely at the moment -- certainly not enough to say that they are favored. They could certainly win. Lean is not safe. But again, I don't think there's a case for them to be *favored* based on this. So Lean D.

Track the vote delta here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

And the model by @ADincgor is here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Special thanks to the following folks for their help with everything, from numbers to estimates to modeling:

@ADincgor @thunderousprof @joe__gantt @dooraven

For the record, to do this, they need about 57% of the in-person early vote between now and Thursday. They're currently winning a touch over 51%.

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1343335897547173888?s=20

Also forgot to cite @ElectProject for the data :)