Thread by @HWLavelleMaps

Day 1: Illinois-3 - This year progressive Democrat Marie Newman significantly underperformed Dan Lipinski's bloated 2018 margin in the district. Please follow the thread below for detailed analysis of this fascinating Chicago-based district. #ElectionTwitter

It all began earlier this year when Marie Newman successfully defeated long-time Congressman Dan Lipinski in a primary rematch. Lipinski had served since his father's retirement in 2005 and had formed a record as one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus.

Lipinski's record was in many ways perfectly representative of the district's strong population of working class whites. (Ex cops, firefighters, and other union workers) He opposed abortion, and at first stood against same-sex marriage, but he always backed organized labor.

Lipinski's record was in many ways perfectly representative of the district's strong population of working class whites. (Ex cops, firefighters, and other union workers) He opposed abortion, and at first stood against same-sex marriage, but he always backed organized labor.

Lipinski's bloated margin was also in large part due to the fact that his opponent, Arthur Jones, was a Nazi who denied the Holocaust and spouted anti-Semitic rhetoric throughout the campaign. Jones won two precincts in suburban Cook, with the rest of his support in Will.

Here is a swing map compared against the racial composition of the district. According to the 2020 Almanac the district has a 32% Latino population, which has steadily been growing and overtaking working-class Whites in the Chicago portion of the seat. Let's take a closer look!

Even looking at Lipinski's previous performances against normal Republican opponents, Newman underperformed with many traditional White Lipinski voters who are economically liberal but socially conservative. (Many of these neighborhoods backed Lip. in the primary)

While many also attribute Newman's underperformance to the district's Hispanics, I've discovered that simply isn't true. If you look at the seat's northern tendril, which is heavily Hispanic, you will see precincts that actually swung more Democratic between 2018 and 2020!

While most Hispanic precincts still swung toward the right, they swung significantly less than comparable White precincts. The district's handful of Black precincts also swung left - preferring Newman to Lipinski. Truly fascinating.

The strongest swings of all came in the White communities of LaGrange (upper left) and Oak Lawn (bottom right). White communities south of Forest View (sandwiched between Hispanic precincts) also swung heavily toward the right.

Nearly 30% of the district's population is Blue Collar, with only 14% White Collar. Clinton won the district 55-40% in 2016 (an improvement from Obama's 2012 margin) I'm curious to see how the district voted Presidentially this time around and am working on calculations.

Thank you to @JMilesColeman for the Illinois Shapefile. I really appreciate the help here. I meant to add it onto the actual map but I must’ve forgotten at 2 am. Sorry.