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Dougie Kass Profile picture
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28 Dec, 4 tweets, 4 min read
@horncapital Surprise #11 Broad Regulatory Actions Against Big Tech Results In A More Rapid Pivot From Growth to Value - FANG Becomes GATFAT! Anti-trust actions against Facebook, Google and Amazon become a genuine worry. In response to Derek Chauvin (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Cha…
) being acquitted in the George Floyd case, rioting ensues and the social media platforms are blamed for fanning the literal flames as Minneapolis is all but burned to the ground. The Rule 230 exemption (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_2…) is repealed. Meanwhile Europe begins imposing
punitive taxes on US internet giants. Finally, China retaliates to Biden continuing Trumps policy of going after Chinese companies with its own claims about Apple (illegal monopoly) and Tesla (unsafe cars). Google, Apple, Twitter, Facebook, Amazon and Tesla get redubbed GATFAT
, as the impact of their prior overblown markets caps on portfolios is broadly felt by the Indexers and other investors. @jimcramer @tomkeene @business @realdonaldtrump @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @threadreaderapp unroll

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More from @DougKass

Dougie Kass Profile picture
28 Dec
Coming up on @realmoney
My 15 Surprises for 2021
* In 2020 (despite broad February-March weakness) equities rose faster, valuations expanded far greater and interest rates fell sharper than the consensus expected
* 2021 could be a year in which the S&P Index shows little
movement in the first half of the year - but market pressures might mount over the last six months of 2021
* The S&P could end the year at levels -15% below 2020 year-end prices and far below that of the consensus (+8%) under the weight of higher inflation and interest rates in
the second half of the year
* With the "bond vigilantes" coming out of a multi-decade hibernation, 2021 might bring on a compression in price earnings ratios following the reset higher in multiples over the last nine months of 2020
* Next year might mark the return of political
Read 6 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
25 Dec
I suppose very little surprises us anymore from @realdonaldtrump but...

washingtonpost.com/investigations…

You can NOT make this stuff up!

As she asked the U.S. Supreme Court this month to overturn President Trump’s election loss, the attorney Sidney Powell cited testimony from a
secret witness presented as a former intelligence contractor with insights on a foreign conspiracy to subvert democracy.

Powell told courts that the witness is an expert who could show that overseas corporations helped shift votes to President-elect Joe Biden. The witness’s
identity must be concealed from the public, Powell has said, to protect her “reputation, professional career and personal safety.”

The Washington Post identified the witness by determining that portions of her affidavit match, sometimes verbatim, a blog post that the pro-Trump
Read 8 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
21 Dec
@realmoney

Dec 21, 2020 | 08:20 AM EST DOUG KASS
I Can't Recall When My Bearish Market Outlook Was So Far From the Bullish and Confident Consensus
* In late November I cautioned about the possibility that Covid-19 mutates - the evidence is now that it has

* Risk happens fast
* Today's investors are greedy (speculation has run amok) when they should be fearful

* Not since I was uber bullish in both March 2020 and December 2018 and market participants were fearful and Bearish, have I been so far from the market's consensus

* "The Tesla Top?"
* I even reduced my money center bank exposure for the first time in a long while on the "repurchase" gap after the close on Friday

* As many of my long positions have reached and exceeded my targets I have materially sold down my long book in recent weeks
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
18 Dec
@realmoney

Dec 18, 2020 | 06:09 PM EST DOUG KASS
Taking Off Some From Bank Holdings in the After Hours
* The share repurchase news may mark a near-term top in the banking sector

For the first time in almost a year, I am scaling back some of my bank stock holdings now -- in
after-hours trading.
Though a bit unexpected (from the standpoint of timing) the buyback news after the market's close likely marks a near-term top in the shares of the major money center banks -- which have gotten extended and overbought with the late gaps higher:
* Citigroup (C) is trading at over $62.50 (+$3.50)
* Bank of America (BAC) is trading at $30.05 (+$1.40)
* JPMorgan (JMP) is trading at $125.75 (+$6.70)
* Wells Fargo (WFC) is trading at $30.02 (+$1.01)
* XLF (XLF) is trading at $29.55 (+$1.06)

Given my
Read 6 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
18 Dec
@realmoney
Dec 18, 2020 | 09:29 AM EST DOUG KASS
A Word Of Caution
Yesterday saw the obliteration in a number of speculative stocks.

I don't own SPACs because many are not analyzable -- and my investment methodology is fundamentally-based.

Others don't seem to care -- as
the upside attraction of chasing "shiny objects" offsets the risks and the general lack of knowledge of the companies.

I fully get their view, but I do not share it. I will never purchase shares in a stock that I don't understand or that is trading below intrinsic value simply
because the share price is rising.

The latter approach of speculating has worked out fine for many -- but I am fearful that the strength of recent months may no longer continue.

Caveat emptor.

Again. @jimcramer @tomkeene @davidfaber @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC @business
Read 4 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
17 Dec
@realmoney Dec 17, 2020 | 08:12 AM EST DOUG KASS
I Like Gold More Than Ever
* Our politicians and central bankers have lost their collective minds as short-term thinking (and policy) has replaced long-term planning

Over the last few weeks I have moved back to a very large long
position in gold, as represented by SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD) .

Both on the fiscal and monetary side I believe our officials have lost their collective minds.

Undisciplined and non-productive spending continues to run amok and so has our nation's bloated debt load and twin
deficits while the rationalization for enormous infusions of liquidity by the Fed is now going beyond the pale.

With real interest rates in deeply negative territory I believe the price of gold may begin advancing more rapidly -- even, perhaps, bitcoin-like" in 2021 --
Read 4 tweets

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