Very fair and common question but to be honest I don't like this question because it has almost no relation to policy/actual action and everything to do with the PR spokesperson. We should never equate policy with politics. Reframe this question about policy 1/n
If we focus on the policy actions, I think the US has every reason to be very proud of its actions over the last four years. Let me emphasize this does not mean a full throated endorsement, I does not mean I would have done everything the exact same way, however, the policy 2/n
within foreign policy I think is a strong record that has really been at the forefront of changing the discussion specifically about China but also expanding on previous changes. Let's go over a couple. First, USG has challenged China directly across a range of policy 3/n
Domains (and this is important) where there are plausible paths to victory or not ceding ground. FONOPS in the SCS, telecom, espionage in the US and elsewhere, and yes seeking cooperation with Asian allies concerned about China. More broadly, in policy areas the conversation 4/n
Has changed much more to tacit admission that the policy problems cited (NATO, WTO, US security guarantees for free riders) are deeply problematic. These debates started out as fury they were even being raised but now at least garner recognition they are deeply problematic 5/n
Different countries have different views about all of these issues, but are least moving to confront these issues much more directly. Personally, I think one of the biggest "failures" of the last 4 years come from two areas. First, presenting well formulated alternatives. 6/n
This stems from some Trump mistakes such as pulling out of TPP but also very much from simply needing to change the framework. In 2016, China and these issues did not garner nearly the thinking they do now. Try talking about a broad Indo Pacific Security framework or alliance 7/n
Because of the China threat in 2017 would have been laughed out of the room. Previous administration did not take China seriously. The conversation needed to change for these ideas to gain broader acceptance. Second, I think the last 4 years if anything suffered from a lack 8/n
of ambition. Take telecom as a simple example: yes, the US is right on Huawei, ZTE, and all Chinese tech to be honest. However, just making a persuasive argument isn't going to make nearly the impact compared to making a capital contribution to the Development Finance Corp 9/n
And allowing them to lend money at 0% to any country who blocks Chinese network gear to fund 5G roll out. That could be done for a couple billion a year, which is couch cushion money in USG terms. You can't simply make the moral or persuasive argument to change global events 10/n
You have to bring real resources to bear that move plants, change decisions, and alter the course of alliances. If anything we haven't been ambitious enough. Make no mistake, we have been vastly more ambitious than pretty much every other country on the planet. Period. 11/n
No other country is even close. Europe is an embarrassment. If you want to change the discussion and course of history, Asia is the theater. Period. Geopolitics isn't a popularity contest its about policy that changes decisions. I'd say the past 4 years were generally positive.

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More from @BaldingsWorld

18 Dec
I forget who said it but one of the truisms of the Trump era was that Trump enemies always sunk to his level and lower. In foreign policy it seems like most everyone automatically lost 20 IQ points because the thinking is so poorly though through. Let's take one example 1/n
The buzz word dominating Acela Corridor think tanks and media (neither the brightest lights in the house) is "allies" to challenge China. As an amorphous vacuous meaningless cliche it's wonderful. However, it stems not from an realistic appraisal of the foreign policy 2/n
Landscape but from a critique of Trump (leave aside the accuracy for now) and a desire for boring peace, love, and kumbaya. The reality is that for numerous reasons, all these supposed "allies" are not nearly the "allies" our media and think tank overlords suppose 3/n
Read 11 tweets
16 Dec
There is astounding poverty of foreign policy thinking. It is both Trump obsessed and gratuitously narcissistic in US political self absorption. Virtually any geopolitical problem you cite will NOT be fixed by changing the President. Let's go down a quick list of hits: 1/n
South Korea is governed by a kumbaya singing Pyongyang appeaser who wants the US to put personnel at risk giving it a blank check while he actively tries to give goodies to a totalitarian mad man. That's not changing with a new President 2/n
China is governed by an unabashed totalitarian wannabe that will not negotiate on anything but how low you will bow to recognize their supremacy. That's not changing with a new president 3/n
Read 9 tweets
12 Dec
Another great data leak by the IPAC team on CCP members in UK companies and government institutions. A couple of important things about this database are important to note 1/n
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
First, these CCP members are in senior ranks at all the major multinationals with access to key IP and IT security. In other words, MNCs are dealing with the CCP and infiltrated by the CCP at all levels. 2/n
Second, this data was offered to ALL major US outlets and all passed. Think about that: all major US outlets passed on a CCP membership list with work information! Why does this matter? Many reasons. Let me give you one: a recent executive order blocks CCP members and 3/n
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec
I never cease to be amazed at how bad the foreign policy takes from Acela Corridor Galaxy Brains™️ are and I think I've narrowed it down to two specific issues. First, they have limited technical knowledge about the issues they are actually pontificating on. 1/n
I read an article just recently by a noted outlet on a topic that should have focused on technical hurdles to realizing a solution but turned out to be nothing more than basically a Risk board game analysis of forming alliances and moving troops into Kamchatka. 2/n
The fundamental problem is that the analysts are pontificating about something they have no idea about technically. Rather than discuss the technical hurdles it was board game analysis of alliances and resources from conquered lands. In the areas I focus on, there is a severe 4/n
Read 8 tweets
6 Dec
As a great lover of Tolstoy and Dostoevsky, I love this thread and line if thinking. However, I take a slightly different view, not even really disagreeing. To me Tolstoy and Dostoevsky focus on two different areas of life. Tolstoy is like the macro view as Einstein is to 1/n
Is to physics through relativity. War and Peace sought to explain human role in the upheaval of historical events. The psychology existed within their role of this macro view of historical change. Dostoevsky is the Neil Bohr of quantum physics at the individual level of 2/n
Personal salvation and struggle. The inveterate obsessed gambler, the killer struggling to reconcile his actions to his belief, or the monk seeking to make certain his faith in God. These were personal individual struggles separate from the macro backdrop of history against 3/n
Read 5 tweets
3 Dec
I'm frequently asked why the obsession with China? Simple: The CCP wants to dominate the world. Period. They are not a competitor. They are an adversary. An enemy. It is not hard to conceive where they usher in a long period of global authoritarianism. Too many people 1/n
Including a lot of DC "experts" have been entirely and totally wrong and still are. They need to be treated as they are: not a country with whom we have a trade dispute but a whole of society adversary bent on changing the governance system globally and within democracies. 2/n
Every issue you talk about is a China issue: inequality, innovation, climate, on and on. They are ALL fundamentally China issues. Too many people think China will negotiate and cooperate. Find me an example of where China has good faith cooperated. I'll wait. 3/n
Read 6 tweets

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