Big update posted last night by @PHE_uk on the new UK variant of #SARS-CoV-2 (aka B.1.1.7 or VOC 202012/01), including first solid evidence that it does not cause more severe clinical disease. Highlights in the 🧵...
We can now see that the S-gene target failure (SGTF) in the Thermofisher TaqPath assay I've discussed before is a very good proxy for the new variant almost everywhere in England. 
So we can use SGTF as a near-real-time proxy for spread of the new variant. It is present at some level everywhere in England, and has almost replaced all other variants in London and the Southeast.
The big "blackout" zones, especially in the East are largely because the Cambridge Lighthouse lab does not use the relevant assay, and that's where most of the pillar 2 tests in that region go. Don't be fooled: from genome data we know the new variant is very common there!
Here's where the news gets good. The PHE team took ~1800 new variant cases and created a 1:1 cohort of "Covid classique" matched on age, sex, date of + test and location. They then studied hospital admissions and deaths. The two groups had reassuringly similar rates of both.
Updated analyses in coming weeks with more samples will be definitive, but for now we can firmly say that the new variant does not cause dramatically worse illness. That's a big relief.
Next analysis is on re-infection, and again no difference: 2 in the new variant group, 3 in the old variant group. Small numbers, but it pretty much rules out hypothesis that the new variant is spreading so fast by re-infecting tons of people who previously had the old variant.
Final analysis is "secondary attack rate". When you find a case and trace contacts, how many get infected? 15% for new variant vs 9% for old. There's no p-value on this finding, but my guess is that's a significant difference, and consistent with increased transmissibility.
So: the new variant is spreading fast, more easily among close contacts. But doesn't seem any better at reinfection, nor does it cause much more severe disease or death. Massive kudos to the PHE team for getting this out so fast over🎄!
Whoops forgot the link to the report! assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
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