If you could spend a day with one person from history, who would it be and why?
Some amazing replies here. To clarify, the person can definitely still be alive!
Most frequent responses so far:
Business - Steve Jobs
World Leaders - Benjamin Franklin, Mandela, Napoleon
Religion - Jesus, Prophet Muhammad, Moses
Science/Math - Leonardo da Vinci, Tesla, Einstein
Sports/Culture - Muhammad Ali
We live in a world of complex systems that punish simple, linear thinking. The greatest minds consistently use second-order thinking to solve problems.
But what is "second-order thinking" and how does it work?
Here's Second-Order Thinking 101!
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1/ First, a few definitions.
First-order thinking focuses exclusively on solving an immediate problem, without regard for any potential consequences.
To paraphrase the words of the great @HowardMarksBook, it is "simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it."
2/ Second-order thinking moves beyond the immediate problem and considers the multiple layers of implications and consequences of a given decision.
In short, it looks past the simple first-order effects of a decision and deeply examines the second, third, and Nth-order effects.
History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.
But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?
Here's Survivorship Bias 101!
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1/ First, a few definitions.
Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).
When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.
2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.
Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.