Thread dropping in a couple hours. D +2.8 today in our model, but one thing to note is that what our model does is *not* forecast. It takes the VBM/EV splits by precinct, takes the November margins, and projects that onto today's electorate with turnout per precinct.
This is to say that I expect our final precinct model to end up at D +2.5 or so, which will probably be a touch more favorable to Democrats than the county model. It's currently D +2.8, but I don't expect that to last because the outstanding ballots should be closer than 54-46.
Should I have included an artificial modifier in the precinct model like in the county model? IMO, no, because while we had days to debug and track the changes in the county model, we don't have that time with the precinct model and couldn't regularize for outstanding ballots.
So one of the things to accept is that the precinct model will be more volatile and likely converge to the county model as time goes on. I think it would eventually match the county model to within couple tenths of a percentage.
Unless, of course, I decide to add regularization to it, but I don't even know if that's worth it at this point given how few days are left in voting.

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More from @lxeagle17

31 Dec
🚨GEORGIA UPDATE 12/29 (TOTAL + VBM + IN-PERSON)🚨

Total Votes: 2,566,332 (+228,855)

Percent of registered voters: 33.2%
White: 55.4% (56.5% in general)
Black: 31.3% (27.7% general)
Hispanic: 2.2% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.5% (2.6% general)
COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 33.2%
DeKalb: 39.5%
Cobb: 34%
Fulton: 38.2%
Gwinnett: 35.7%
Chatham: 23.4%
Muscogee: 31.4%
Columbia: 33.5%
Houston: 33.6%
Baldwin: 31.7%
Fayette: 41.4%
Hall: 30.1%
Clayton: 31.2%
Forsyth: 39.8%
IN-PERSON EARLY VOTES

Total Votes: 1,710,566 (+175,379)
Percent of registered voters: 22.1%
White: 56% (58.2% in general)
Black: 31% (26.4% general)
Hispanic: 2.2% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2% (2.0% general)
Read 31 tweets
29 Dec
okay hold up, if everyone on the TL is going to do punditry on the Georgia Senate races, then I get to do it too, but I'll limit it to this thread (and I don't claim to believe any of it changes the results! these are just for my own entertainment)
The rigged election stuff is horrible and will see turnout crater as a result all around the state, meaning Democrats win by 10. What a disaster for turnout. The GOP can surely never recover from the messaging that they've put out for months now (/s)
Suburbs are clearly going to revert to the Republicans. All those Downballot Democrats Who Were Once Republicans are now definitely going to vote for Perdue, meaning he'll win by 5 because they want a Check On Biden even though Perdue didn't outrun Trump much in November (/s)
Read 8 tweets
29 Dec
🚨GEORGIA UPDATE 12/28 (TOTAL + VBM + IN-PERSON)🚨

Total Votes: 2,337,477 (+211,223)

Percent of registered voters: 30.2%
White: 55.2% (56.5% in general)
Black: 31.5% (27.7% general)
Hispanic: 2.1% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.5% (2.6% general)
COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 30.2%
DeKalb: 36.4%
Cobb: 30.5%
Fulton: 35.6%
Gwinnett: 32.9%
Chatham: 20.4%
Muscogee: 27.2%
Columbia: 27.7%
Houston: 30.9%
Baldwin: 25.5%
Fayette: 37.5%
Hall: 26.9%
Clayton: 27.6%
Forsyth: 36.7%
IN-PERSON EARLY VOTES

Total Votes: 1,535,187 (+157,432)
Percent of registered voters: 19.8%
White: 55.6% (58.2% in general)
Black: 31.4% (26.4% general)
Hispanic: 2.2% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.1% (2.0% general)
Read 19 tweets
29 Dec
Appears, on first glance, that the GOP got...a status quo day.

They did not want a status quo day.
Per @joe__gantt and @ADincgor's early vote scraping, it appears today was a net Democrat day, 51.5-48.5 (or thereabouts), which is below the current early vote margin of 54.5-45.5.
However, it's another day where the Democrats padded their lead, which makes it worse for the GOP in terms of the margin needed on election day, which means that while both sides can take something from today, the GOP probably would have wanted more.
Read 5 tweets
29 Dec
Part of me wants to put up an interactive system for our model allowing you to play with e-day turnout. But with a research deadline tomorrow, that's near-impossible given the time constraints. But if you want scenarios modeled, reply with them and I'll get to it when possible.
I wrote the precinct model in python, so it's not that hard to plug in specific scenarios and model them.
If you want a scenario modeled, include the following:

1) Number of VBM votes between now and Jan 5.
2) Number of advanced votes left, and the final advanced voting margin (you can see current margins in the pinned model tweet)
3) Election day turnout as a % of total electorate.
Read 5 tweets
28 Dec
🚨 PRECINCT MODEL RELEASED FOR GEORGIA SENATE RUNOFFS🚨

This model, made by me and @ADincgor, take the November electorate and projects it onto the current electorate. We display it alongside our county model.

Forecast (after 12/27): Ossoff +3.2

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
We do not do a GOP-friendly modification because while the county model corrects for the VBM lag in Democratic counties, this precinct model does not (and cannot).
In our rough estimate, this roughly cancels out the GOP boost gained by the model, but if it doesn't, you'll see the margins become more pro-GOP between now and 12/31 and more pro-Dem as mail ballots are processed between 1/1 and 1/5.
Read 7 tweets

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