okay hold up, if everyone on the TL is going to do punditry on the Georgia Senate races, then I get to do it too, but I'll limit it to this thread (and I don't claim to believe any of it changes the results! these are just for my own entertainment)
The rigged election stuff is horrible and will see turnout crater as a result all around the state, meaning Democrats win by 10. What a disaster for turnout. The GOP can surely never recover from the messaging that they've put out for months now (/s)
Suburbs are clearly going to revert to the Republicans. All those Downballot Democrats Who Were Once Republicans are now definitely going to vote for Perdue, meaning he'll win by 5 because they want a Check On Biden even though Perdue didn't outrun Trump much in November (/s)
That Trump Rally is Really Going to Juice Turnout In the North! Republicans must love the rally, because whining about a "rigged" election will surely get them more votes.
(I'm only half-joking on this one. I don't even think that rally's going to help too much)
Oh dear, oh dear. Democrats always lose every runoff. I fail to see why this one is any different. They lost in 2008 and 2018. Likely R, maybe Safe. We'll need to make a deal with Mitch and hope Joe Manchin doesn't become a Republican. (/s)
Oh my, Trump vetoing the NDAA is definitely going to cost the Republicans at least 4 to 5 points in the Georgia Senate races, because the electorate is so tuned in and aware of the news during the holidays!
Democrats can never recover from Defund the Police. Jon Ossoff blew the campaign when he accepted Bernie Sanders' endorsement and then went to that Vegan restaurant in Atlanta. Can't believe I, as someone from California, know so much better than someone born and raised in GA. /s
just about all of these takes are complete jokes and if you are seriously making any of them in good faith thinking that they'll change anything except for maybe a few thousand votes around the margins, maybe think again.
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BTW, that's just a joke and it's not really true at all -- we have much more accurate result margins from November instead of relying on dicey polls, and the precinct estimates we have are thus far more accurate as a result! Everyone agrees that Dems have a ~54-46 lead rn
but i just wanted to make that florida joke okay it's been like a month since i did that.
Thread dropping in a couple hours. D +2.8 today in our model, but one thing to note is that what our model does is *not* forecast. It takes the VBM/EV splits by precinct, takes the November margins, and projects that onto today's electorate with turnout per precinct.
This is to say that I expect our final precinct model to end up at D +2.5 or so, which will probably be a touch more favorable to Democrats than the county model. It's currently D +2.8, but I don't expect that to last because the outstanding ballots should be closer than 54-46.
Should I have included an artificial modifier in the precinct model like in the county model? IMO, no, because while we had days to debug and track the changes in the county model, we don't have that time with the precinct model and couldn't regularize for outstanding ballots.
Appears, on first glance, that the GOP got...a status quo day.
They did not want a status quo day.
Per @joe__gantt and @ADincgor's early vote scraping, it appears today was a net Democrat day, 51.5-48.5 (or thereabouts), which is below the current early vote margin of 54.5-45.5.
However, it's another day where the Democrats padded their lead, which makes it worse for the GOP in terms of the margin needed on election day, which means that while both sides can take something from today, the GOP probably would have wanted more.
Part of me wants to put up an interactive system for our model allowing you to play with e-day turnout. But with a research deadline tomorrow, that's near-impossible given the time constraints. But if you want scenarios modeled, reply with them and I'll get to it when possible.
I wrote the precinct model in python, so it's not that hard to plug in specific scenarios and model them.
If you want a scenario modeled, include the following:
1) Number of VBM votes between now and Jan 5. 2) Number of advanced votes left, and the final advanced voting margin (you can see current margins in the pinned model tweet) 3) Election day turnout as a % of total electorate.