Thread by @swapniltk

Writing a long thread on #Maharashtra's recent Politics
It should help you to understand what happened in a year.

I have broken down thread in three parts. Past, Present & possible Future of #Maharashtra's politics.

Go through it 👇

▶️Past:

It all looked good for BJP on results day of Maharashtra Assembly 2019.
They had a score of 105 with several independents in touch already. Maharashtras politics is complex, those who know closely, knew that BJP made 100+ twice itself is a big achievement.

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NDA had bagged 162+ seats around, ShivSena had won 56 & it looked alright until Uddhav Thackeray took a conference and demanded CM post, said that otherwise he have other options ready. Initially BJP thought its a bargain but at some point, BJP realized that MVA formation

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Looks possible and things may go out of hand in spite of public mandate to NDA.
Devendra Fadanvis decided to play his game, decided to go with NCP's Ajit Pawar as he talked to many MLAs of NCP over phone on assurance of backing alliance. Ajit Pawar knew that Jayant Patil

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of NCP will become deputy CM in MVA and he might not get what he exactly looking for. With BJP, he could have proved himself with post of deputy CM and some other important portfolios in hand.

Ajit Pawar was whip of the party and he had list of NCP mlas signed on it.

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As per rules, Ajit Pawar would have asked NCP mlas to vote BJPs speaker. Once speaker elected then through the voice support (list of whips) government would have formed with CM of BJP, Deputy CM of NCP. Governor that is why given a chance to both the parties.

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However in between, SS/INC went to court and Sharad Pawar looked against BJP-NCP alliance. Court asked for open voting instead of voice voting and game that both Devendra Fadnavis & Ajit Pawar played became a spoil sport.

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Of course, very less MLAs were present of both parties at early swearing ceremony. Reality is that Ajit Pawar didnt backstab Devendra Fadnavis but they both couldnt go against court. NCP chief Sharad Pawar also assured him Deputy CM post.

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ShivSena is getting exposed day by day, had there been no alliance in assembly, scenario could have been same seat tally wise but without sympathy to BJP. Alliance was needed.

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▶️Present:
BJP as of now focusing on West Bengal election and that is really the priority. One thing at a time. BJP isnt looking a short gain anymore in Maharashtra.

BJP faced major defeat in MLC elections which doesnt really represent wide ground.

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BJP mostly offered wrong candidates and conflicts within leaders over selection. Defeat realized leaders that over confidence and no hard work can make BJPs future hard.

Khadse left BJP, however that will not be a major impact.
Should not hamper anywhere else except
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Muktainagar VS, that too in less extent. BJP against MVA will be a litmus test in upcoming corporations of Navi Mumbai, Vasai-Virar, Kalyan-Dombivali, Aurangabad, Kolhapur. ShivSena will be its major competitor in these 3-4 corporations.

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BJP shall try becoming SLP in KDMC & Aurangabad. Win Navi Mumbai alone. We will get to know that MVA contest together or it will be all vs all. Also perception of the public.

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There is no replacement for Devendra Fadanvis as of now, DF has clean image, good hold over administration, understanding of all portfolios, excellent track record of winning elections. DF faced so much and learned so much in these years.

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▶️Future:
📌Will BJP ever come to power again in Maharashtra?
Answer is yes, for sure!

Question should be when?
Well. It depends. Congress never let any government run with its support in the history. If INC is sinking, they sink partners as well.

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Someday Congress may revoke support. Then BJP can play its game. A re-election or breaking other parties or asking other party MLAs to resign.
Its also possibility that BJP can engineer 2/3rd split in INC, tough but not impossible

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as INC is smallest in the MVA, also upset and most vulnerable.
BJP can attempt just before corporation election or wait until MVA falls itself.

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📌What should be the good things for BJP ahead?
BJP has already eaten INC and NCP as much as it could. Next target is ShivSena.
In local body elections let it be Zilla Parishad, Gram Panchayat or municipal corporation.

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INC, NCP and SS contests together, there will be rebels within MVA and that will help BJP. BJP will get readymade cadre, leaders and somewhat extra vote share for free. There wont be 100% sync in MVA.

If BJP wants to gain big, capture Mumbai corporation ie BMC.

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SS will die without power in BMC. BJP can defect SS MPs, MLAs in long run then.

In future, BJP will have no major competitor left except NCP. A full open ground post Sharad Pawar.
BJP can get single handed power in state, dominance over all corporations and 35+ MPs alone.

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📌 What could go wrong?
BJP alone in corporation, with no power in state, may lose most of the corporations. Ward structure will remain in the hands of MVA and home ministry plays a key role too.
ShivSena in BMC may get mayor with help of INC.

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BJP may lose some of its imported MLAs as they will resign and re contest. Probably NCPs imported MLAs can go back to former.

BJP in next assembly in worst case may get reduced to 80-85 but not less than that.

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There are two leaders within BJP has conflicts within them that can cost Vidharbha dearly!

⏹️Thread Finished.

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