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Tren Griffin Profile picture
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30 Dec 20, 4 tweets, 1 min read
1/ What business is this?
You want another clue?
3/ More data you want?
4/ S-1 filed with the SEC on December 28, 2020
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
29 Dec 20
1/ Newsletter owned by Advance Publications (Condé Nast) publishes a meandering slam of businesses like Substack that enable writers to create their own newsletters.

Writers owning their business and controlling their own lives = bad for democracy? Nope! newyorker.com/magazine/2021/…
2/ News (e.g., the mayor took bribes) is non rival and non excludable. Selling news if not to Bloomberg terminals is near impossible.

"few newsletters publish original reporting; the majority offer personal writing, opinion pieces, research, and analysis"

Like the New Yorker!
3/ WTF is this from the post in the New Yorker newsletter:

"Substack obviously wants to call it a democratizing gesture, which I find a little bit specious. It’s the democracy of neoliberal self-empowerment."

Is it investigative journalism? Is it news? You can't sell news.
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
25 Dec 20
1/ Quick thread before my turkey goes in the oven.

You are Ben Ronson and you publish a newsletter called "Stradeckery" about strategy. Thousands of people pay you $10 month to subscribe.

Bundler says: "Publish through us Ben since X, Y and Z."

What is X let alone Y and Z?
2/ Does the bundler have all the elements needed to be a successful multi-sided market?

Does the bundler solve a hard coordination problem that Ben can't solve on his own? 25iq.com/2016/10/22/a-d…
3/ What does Ben give up if he lets the bundler own the direct relationship with the customer and the data from that relationship? 25iq.com/2018/06/02/pro…

Remember: You are Ben (the creator) not a consumer whining about paying for so many subscriptions or the bundler.
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
25 Dec 20
1/ 1994 was a miracle year of my life I said in a podcast recently. McCaw Cellular was sold in 1993. The Information Highway plan was about to die an unexpected death replaced by an Internet that had commercial value. The shift to the Internet was obvious only after the fact.
2/ “The decision to put money into the Internet in 1994 was considered by many of my colleagues to be borderline insane. Most people said things like, The Internet is free; you can’t make money on that!" Marc Andreessen
3/ The sale of McCaw Cellular to AT&T in 1993 meant Jim Barksdale and Peter Currie went to Netscape. Craig McCaw was talking to Jim Clark who said: “What I recognized after talking to Marc Andreessen was that the Web was to networks in 1994 what the PC was to computing in 1982.”
Read 6 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
23 Dec 20
It's almost as if tech stocks have intangible assets that don't show up in GAAP "earnings."

If it makes you feel better, go ahead and howl at the moon tonight about P/E multiples being too high! morganstanley.com/im/publication…

You're under pressure. Why do actual work? Use multiples!
Selfish investors might endow chairs at universities teaching that businesses should be valued with a P/E multiple.

"For a security to be mispriced, someone else must be a damn fool.” Charlie Munger

Fools graduating from these schools are a source of investment outperformance!
Sam: "I'm selling my tech stock because my broker told me NASDAQ P/E multiples are too high."

Ann: "When did you buy it?"

Sam: "A long time ago. Two months."

Ann: "Why did you buy it?

Sam: "My broker said I needed more beta."

Ann: "What do they sell?"

Sam: "I've no idea."
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
23 Dec 20
1/ I've heard Craig McCaw say many times: "wireless radio spectrum is like invisible money."

When you have more spectrum you don't need to spend as much on infrastructure. One can be a substitute for the other. Not all spectrum is equally valuable tho. wsj.com/articles/5g-au…
2/ Wireless is about tradeoffs. For example, low band radio frequencies have better propagation, but have less hertz to transmit bits. Higher frequencies are the reverse. Mid-band frequencies are, well, in the middle. Do you know what higher prices in this auction indicate?
3/ If you look at that picture in the first tweet you should think: "That infrastructure looks spendy because it requires real cash money." Having spectrum helping you avoid that cost is worth buying at auction. The more spendy the infrastructure, the more valuable spectrum is.
Read 7 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
21 Dec 20
"Did Shkreli ask you for advice on his romantic relationship?" is a question I'm seeing a lot tonight in DMs and texts.

Strategy is of little use in affairs of the heart. But as Charlie Munger says, its wise to avoid experiences like bad marriages or racing trains to crossings.
"A realization hit her. In the visitors’ room, “I told Martin I loved him,” Smythe says. “And he told me he loved me, too.” She asked if she could kiss him, and he said yes. The room smelled of chicken wings, she remembers." elle.com/life-love/a350…
It is more likely I would be asked for advice on a topic like this:

"Shkreli mused about running for office or starting a podcast when he got out.“

Starting a podcast is far too hard.

Running for political office only requires clearing a very low hurdle. Weak competitors!
Read 5 tweets

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