Former Iraqi PM Al-Maliki: We Would Have Sent The Iraqi Army To Fight In Syria If It Were Needed To Prevent The Fall Of The Al-Assad Regime
If Assad were to fall, an invasion by Al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda & others into Iraq, Lebanon, & Jordan would have ensued ow.ly/EFLg30rqoM9
The interesting part of Maliki's assertion is not whether Iraq had the capability to send forces to Syria in 2014, but that ISIS's success changed the region. The collapse of the US-assembled, Iraqi army underlined the importance of religion in mobilizing military force.
The collapse of national solidarity sparked sectarian & ethnic mobilization across the region. Shi'a forces mobilized in face of Sunni successes. Sistani called for the Hasd. Hizb doubled down. US sided w Hasd & pivoted to the Kurds in Syria, dropping the Sunni Arab militias.
Sure, Maliki is a blowhard. The Iraqi army was in free fall in 2014, but the interesting part of his statement is to underscore how terribly the US miscalculated. It believed that it could build power-sharing democratic states to replace sectarian anxieties. It did the opposite.
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"Indicators show sanctions are hitting ordinary Syrians the hardest"
What can be done?
"Western countries should agree on a set of detailed objectives within the agreed framework of 2254 to resolve the conflict and tie sanctions to measurable and attainable goals. [such as =>
To tie sanctions to specific improvements on human rights, such as releasing detainees, setting up independent visits to detention facilities, and stopping arbitrary detentions by security agencies to give civil society initiatives an appropriate and safe working environment.
The marginal effect of the trade shock on GDP reached –3.1% points in Jordan and –2.9% points in Lebanon. In comparison, the demographic shock (refugee arrivals) boosted GDP by 0.9% points in both countries by increasing aggregate demand and labor supply.
Poverty rates increased by 4% in Jordan, 7.1% in Lebanon &, with internal displacement, 6.0% points in Iraq.
A strong economic recovery in Syria and an associated positive fallout for neighboring states are unlikely.
U.S. median income in 2013 was a mere 4 % higher than in 2008; meanwhile, Chinese & Vietnamese median incomes increased more than 100%, while Thailand’s median income increased by 85% & India’s by 60%.
China has played an enormous role in lowering global inequality. The economic growth of its 1.4 billion people has reshaped wealth around the world. But China has become so wealthy that its continued growth no longer plays such an important role in lowering global inequality.
India, with a population that is still relatively poor, now plays an important role in making the world more equal. In the last 20 years, China and India have driven the reduction in global inequality. From now on, only Indian growth will perform that same function.
2. France has historically claimed primacy in the Mediteranean region. This has been true since Napoleon & grew stronger as France acquired colonies in North Africa and the Levant.
Turkey is now challenging France for primacy in the East Med.
3. The top prize for France since the Arab Spring uprisings has been Libya.
Italy had major Libyan oil deals under Qaddafi. To wrest control of Libya, France sided w Gen Haftar against the UN recognized governing coalition in Tripoli (GNC), which rules a small section of Libya.
The Trump administration is preparing anticorruption sanctions against Hezbollah’s allies in Lebanon, as it seeks to weaken the group in the aftermath of the Beirut explosion.
"U.S. officials see an opportunity to drive a wedge b/n Hezbollah & its allies as part of a broader effort to contain the Shiite force backed by Tehran. Hezbollah has been part of Lebanese coalition governments for more than a decade & is the region’s most potent threat to Israel
U.S. officials said that by sanctioning carefully selected people, they aim to shape the new government with two prime goals: ensuring that Hezbollah doesn’t retain its hold on government decisions & compelling Lebanon’s political class to target endemic corruption.
Powerful policy proposal to foreign aid agencies/govs by @SynapsNetwork arguing they must boycott Lebanon's gov agencies, political class, banks, & front NGOs in providing aid. The objective is to assist the revolution, demanded by demonstrators.
The big difference b/n the proposed Lebanon aid boycott & Syria boycott is that @SynapsNetwork stops short of proposing legal sanctions against Lebanon's elites. Only Hizbullah is presently targeted w sanctions. All transactions are to remain legal. The stick remains moral.
The big question is whether political pressure will build for legal & economic sanctions on Lebanon's gov, business & faction heads. A few thinktanks, such as the Foundation for Defense of Democracies @FDD, are recommending broad sanctions on the Lebanese gov. Will this catch on?