When people say "Valuation doesn't matter" is precisely the time we need to be more cautious and know the difference between (Intrinsic) Value & (Mkt) Price.
Excellent Site based on A. Damodaran's "The Little Book of Valuation"👏
✔️Intrinsic versus Relative Value
✔️Time Value of Money and concept of Discounting
✔️Accounting 101
✔️Mechanics of using Intrinsic Value versus Relative Value
Characteristics, Value Drivers & how to Value Co.'s in various stages of their Life Cycle
Valuing Co.'s in few other Sectors
✔️Financial Services
✔️Commodities & Cyclicals
✔️High Intangible Assets
For those really interested in long-term investing in Individual Businesses, after few years of learning and experience in particular sector, you can get better at identifying quality Companies/Management.
What trips Investors up and is more impactful over the long-term is
1⃣ When you invest for a low valuation, purely based on backward looking Financials w/o giving enough importance to it's quality and future.
2⃣ When you don't invest in High Quality and high growth Company that you understand well, only due to seemingly high valuation (and still don't invest in it realizing your mistake, just because it has already run up a lot since you first looked at it).
Two things to keep in mind w.r.t Valuation are
1⃣It's highly dependent on the Industry, Life stage of the Co,Quality of the Business/Mgmt, growth rates etc. So quickly concluding something is cheap/expensive (based on the Price multiple) while ignoring everything else is silly.
2⃣Even if the stock price is supposed to be focused on the cash flows over the long-term from that specific Business, the short term valuation can be all over the place depending on the Market sentiment, Fed/Gov policy, momentum/hype etc.
Understanding all these nuances can help investors avoid the daily noise, focus in stable/quality/growth areas, & act when Price is favorable vs Intrinsic Value.
Overall, the above link is fantastic for those patient & independent enough to learn the Core concepts. 👍
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My holdings going into 2⃣0⃣2⃣1⃣ (not recommendations).
No idea how their stocks will perform in 2021, but fairly confident of their strong Business performance in the next few years (well, in most cases) in the normal or social-distancing scenarios.
Before someone comments
This is a mashup of TWO portfolios (hence the higher # of Co's).
Personally, I like a mix of mostly growth Co's with some stable/high quality Co's and few dividend focused Co's.
Just like investing is a highly personal journey (based on our goals, risk tolerance, time horizons, capabilities & strategies), the optimal # holdings in each Portfolio is also very subjective.
1⃣ “We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and competent people, and (4) available at a very attractive price.”
Understand the company, the industry, the team, and the price. Solid points.
2⃣ “We ordinarily make no attempt to buy equities for anticipated favorable stock price behavior in the short term.”
Filter for and buy Co's with a long-term lens. Get used to under and over valuation in the short term (and ignore when not related to Co performance).
Investing in its purest sense (Analysis of Intrinsic value, buying with Margin of Safety) has been out of fashion recently, but here's an excellent resource for anyone interested in learning the core concepts.
h/t @Vintage_Value👏