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30 Dec 20, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Fantastic news from the UK!

The coronavirus vaccine designed by scientists at the University of Oxford has been just been approved for use in the UK.

bbc.com/news/health-55…
What’s great about this vaccine:

• it is stable at refrigerator temperatures
• the world has produced many million doses already and can scale up more

nature.com/articles/d4158…
• And the Oxford vaccine is very, very cheap.

(Given how valuable they are all vaccines are very cheap, but $3-$4 is incredibly cheap really.)

[source vox.com/21590994/oxfor…]
The UK also made the big (and I think good) decision to give only one dose first.

→ Source gov.uk/government/new…
Regarding production capacity the most recent statement by AstraZeneca that I can find is this one from 23 November.
astrazeneca.com/media-centre/p…

They speak of "up to 3 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021” !

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Max Roser Profile picture
30 Dec 20
What is going on with the vaccination campaigns?

Pfizer/Biontech said that they’d provide 50 million doses worldwide within 2020.
There are other vaccines too.

Now, one day before the end of 2020, we find in our global dataset that only 5.4 million people received a vaccine. Image
• More than 10,000 people die every day.
• Doctors and nurses work beyond their capacity.
• It costs us trillions, businesses are gone, millions unemployed.

Then scientists made the impossible possible and made a vaccine in 12 months.

We should really try to do this fast.
It isn’t impossible to do this rapidly.

Israel’s population receives its protection rapidly.

7.4% of Israel’s population has received the first dose.

In the US it is 0.8%
In Germany 0.09% Image
Read 4 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
30 Dec 20
Out of a group of 500 people over the age of 80 one dies within a week.

→ This means it will happen often that a person who was just vaccinated dies within a week.
Not due to the vaccine, but due to the high death rate of the people who are vaccinated first.

data in next tweet
The annual death rate for those over 80 is 10.75% in England & Wales

This means the chance of dying in any week is 0.206%.

[= 10.75% per year / 52 weeks]

So that out of a group of 485 people over 80 we have to expect one person to die within a week.
[100/0.206=485.4]
We will carefully monitor whether the various new vaccines have serious side effects.

But it's important to keep the high death rate of elderly people in mind as some might be tempted to conclude that a death on the next day was due to the vaccine even when it was not.
Read 4 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
26 Dec 20
We live at a very unusual time. We are among the very first generations who can make progress against large problems.
If we want to make progress against the problems we face, then this fact – that we *can* make progress – needs to be absolutely central to our culture.

Some people are building this culture, but it is still a long way to go.
By and large our culture is still the culture of pre-progress times: our media is not drawing our attention to the large problems we face and our education system is not teaching us that progress is possible.
Read 11 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
24 Dec 20
In London the number of daily confirmed cases has doubled within the last week.

[→ To be able to follow the rapid outbreak in the UK we have made the data for subnational regions available here ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-dai…] Image
If you want to see the UK’s subnational data on testing, cases, and deaths, my colleague Hannah Ritchie lists the links in her tweet.

This is not looking good. Several regions have outbreaks even worse than London.

[ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-dai…] Image
Read 5 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
16 Dec 20
I guess this will be one of the most important maps to watch over the coming months.

Really happy that our page on COVID-19 vaccinations is online on @OurWorldInData: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…

If you know of official data on vaccinations in other countries please let us know.
For data sources we will only include data published on official websites (or in press releases and by social media accounts of national authorities).

Otherwise it won’t be manageable – we’ve seen that when we built the testing database in the last months.

Thank you.
For all you researchers and journalists out there.

The vaccination data is now also available in our daily updated global COVID-19 database managed by our colleague @redouad.

You can download (and check!) all our data here:
github.com/owid/covid-19-…
Read 4 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
15 Dec 20
The number of confirmed cases has been declining in almost all regions of Spain.

The only two regions where cases are rising are the Balearic and Canary islands.

[source Spanish government here: mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/…]
The government started publishing the positive rate of tests a while ago – that’s very good and I wish all countries would do that.

But as you see the positive rate is still fairly high in many regions so that the true number of cases is likely quite a bit higher.
This is the number of confirmed cases in the whole of Spain and the positive rate in the entire country – both are coming down which suggests that this decline of cases is real and not just due to worsening testing.

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…
Read 4 tweets

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