The government started publishing the positive rate of tests a while ago – that’s very good and I wish all countries would do that.
But as you see the positive rate is still fairly high in many regions so that the true number of cases is likely quite a bit higher.
This is the number of confirmed cases in the whole of Spain and the positive rate in the entire country – both are coming down which suggests that this decline of cases is real and not just due to worsening testing.
The countermeasures against terrorism – including the ‘war on terror’ – were extreme:
It cost trillions of dollars, killed tens of thousand of people, made millions to refugees, reduced civil liberties, legitimized intrusions into privacy.
And it failed entirely to reduce fear.
This looks unfortunately like a huge success for the terrorists.
As Scott Atran says “Perhaps never in the history of human conflict have so few people with so few actual means and capabilities frightened so many.”
The European CDC will soon be switching to weekly data and I see several people concerned that this would create problems for Our World in Data and those who rely on data that they obtain via us.
What the ECDC was pulling off in the last months was really phenomenal.
Very early in the pandemic – when alternative data sources were often extremely bad – the colleagues there woke up at 4 o'clock every morning to bring together reliable data from countries around the world.
We would definitely prefer if the ECDC would continue doing this work, but I very much understand that it needs to come to an end. And it can because there are good alternatives for case and death data available.
How expensive is it to limit global warming to less than 2°C?
The IPCC reports that the median cost to limit warming to less than 2°C corresponds to an annualized reduction of economic growth by 0.06%, relative to a baseline annual growth of 1.6-3%
If the world economy would grow 1.6% the world economy in 100 years would be 1.016^100=489% the size of today’s economy.
With measures in place to limit warming to 2C, growth would be 0.06% smaller – i.e. 1.54%.
The world economy would then ‘only' be 461% of the size of today.
In case the world economy would grow 3% per year the world economy in 100 years would be 1.03^100=1922% the size of today’s economy.
With measures to limit warming to 2C, growth would be 0.06% smaller – i.e. 2.94%.
The economy would then ‘only' be 1813% the size of today.