The UK authorized the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine. Monumental!

But the BIGGER news centers upon the UK's changes to vaccine schedules. They will now allow people to delay their 2nd doses for up to 12 weeks.

Here's why that might be a gamble...
gov.uk/government/new…
1. UK's announcement came with some new data about the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, which are summarized in this regulatory document:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Chief among them is that a single-dose showed 73% efficacy against COVID-19 after nearly a month...
...hence why the Joint Committee on Vaccination and
Immunisation says "the second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine may be given between 4 to 12 weeks following the first dose."

That's fine and dandy. The weird part centers around the UK's decision with the Pfizer vaccine...
2. UK regulators say, based on unpublished data, that the 2nd dose of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine can also now be given *between 3 to 12 weeks* after the 1st dose.

The original rule, which was based on the clinical trial, calls for a 2nd dose precisely 3 weeks after the 1st dose.
Why this doesn't make sense:

Based on publicly available data on the clinical trial, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine showed only 52% efficacy after the first dose.

In other words, only half of the takers were protected after a single dose.
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
Compare that against protecting nine of every 10 people (94%) with two doses the Pfizer-BioNTech.

Sure, a single dose allows them to double the recipients, but they'd be halving the number of people who develop protection (or thereabouts)...so where's the gain?
Also, it's unclear how durable the Pfizer-BioNTech immunity is after a single dose. To recap...

AstraZeneca second dose after 4-12 weeks: 👍

Pfizer second after 3-12 weeks:
Sources

MHRA regulatory docs here: gov.uk/government/pub…

This one has the AstraZeneca efficacy data: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

JCVI advice on scheduling: gov.uk/government/pub…

Press conference:

Presser slides: gov.uk/government/pub…

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More from @MoNscience

29 Dec 20
To my fellow journalists: If we can walk and chew gum, then we can write headlines without creating false dichotomies.

Even if touching a contaminated surface is a *less frequent* route of coronavirus spread, it *IS STILL* a route of coronavirus spread.
I fault the last 20+ years of intense political partisanship. It has bred a habit of boiling down everything into this versus that.

A citizen is either a liberal or a conservative. An attacker is either a lone wolf or a terrorist. Apple or PC. Team Jacob or Team Edward.
Science, especially health, operates with few true dichotomies. Coronavirus risk is relative, and good hygiene has been a pillar of public health since the bubonic plague.
Read 4 tweets
29 Dec 20
Public Health England has released new details on the UK coronavirus variant, including preliminary findings on its severity.

The report shows that the variant causes as many hospitalizations and deaths as the wild-type virus. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
👍: The variant isn’t more severe.

👎: The variant still seems to spread faster/cause more cases, which could mean more hospitalizations and deaths overall. The new analysis reports the variant’s secondary attack rate is 15.1% versus 9.8% in the wild-type virus.
On the bright side: The UK variant doesn’t seem to cause more reinfections than wild-type.
Read 4 tweets
20 Dec 20
This story is wild!

The day after Thanksgiving, Dr. Deborah Birx (of the WH coronavirus task force) traveled to one of her vacation properties in Delaware. She was accompanied by three generations of her family from two households... apnews.com/article/travel…
It's wild because a week before Thanksgiving, Dr. Birx said that people need "limit interactions [to] indoors, to immediate households when we see this level of community spread." rev.com/blog/transcrip…
Receipts!
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec 20
Fact check: The U.S./CDC has NOT set its full prioritization plan yet, expect for recommending that HCWs and residents of long-term care facilities should receive the first doses (phase 1a)...
The CDC A*C*IP panel is meeting today/right now to decide the other phases i.e., it hasn't voted or come to a decision yet.

People can literally download the slide presentations (cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…) or watch along (ustream.tv/channel/VWBXKB…)....
Among those slides, an onlooker ::coughs::@NateSilver538::coughs:: will find a slide that shows the ACIP's proposal *IS* to prioritize phase 1a --> 1b --> 1c by age...
cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct 20
““The statement that COVID-19 "has a 99.9% recovery rate" is something I would characterize as false," said Cory Zigler, an associate professor of statistics and data sciences and of women’s health at the University of Texas.” politifact.com/factchecks/202… #Debates2020
A team in Italy reported that 87% discharged from a Rome hospital were still experiencing at least one symptom 60 days after COVID-19 onset; 55% had three or more symptoms incl. fatigue (53%), difficulty in breathing (43%), chest pain (22%) evidence.nihr.ac.uk/themedreview/l… #Debates2020
One in four pregnant people with COVID-19 may have lingering ‘long-haul’ illness. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1… by @WeiPoints #Debates2020
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct 20
The White House is embracing The Great Barrington Declaration, a proposal from "scientists" that opposes lockdowns in favor of "herd immunity." (nytimes.com/2020/10/13/wor…)

The math/history behind herd immunity can explain why this herd mentality is foolish. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…
Reminder from my earlier thread about herd immunity/this story:

If places like NYC or Sweden had achieved the herd immunity threshold, then cases would be declining there rather than holding steady or increasing.
The two main reasons why a herd mentality would fail:

1) Kids' immune systems are born susceptible to infectious diseases.

2) Waning immunity is probable for SARS-CoV-2.

Both erode herd immunity over time, so we would never truly be in control. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…
Read 6 tweets

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