Tesla posted a new video about their secret Kato Road 4680 cell production lines a couple of days ago, and it contains a couple of technological gems I haven't seen widely mentioned elsewhere yet, so here's an attempt at listing these new disclosures.

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The first thing is that there appear to be no human workers/operators whatsoever in the main production process.

To the left is an image of line workers handling finished cells in a traditional facility. To the right is the 100% automated conveyance system Tesla has.
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Here's how their 4680 cells are transported in racks of 8x8 cells: 64 cells each.

These standardized racks likely interface into automated pack production machines, made by Tesla Grohmann, or get directly integrated into the die-cast underbody (structural battery pack).
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There's an interesting detail in one of the frames: glimpse of a facility worker observing an industrial robot moving a rack.
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What is interesting is that:

✅ Cell production facilities are Class 7 clean rooms, while the worker doesn't wear the usual "bunny suit" protective gear.
✅ There's a barrier between the worker and the robot: likely separating clean-room air from unprotected air.
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This suggests that much - maybe all - of the Kato Road production floor is in an isolated high grade clean-room with no human presence. Even finished cells are handled in what appear to be a clean-room environment.

Only maintenance would require humans to enter this space.
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The internal unit of handling finished cells appears to be a group of "4" cells in a single holder. A rack would have 16 of these.
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This large "wall" of Tesla labeled units appears to be high volume storage for 64-cell racks - possibly QA testing and initial formation (charging) of the cell.

Cell formation is usually done by third party equipment - but Tesla clearly uses their own equipment now.
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At 0:20 there appears to be rare footage of the "jelly roll" (inner roll of the cell) being carefully pressed into the "can", creating much of the final cell body.
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At 0:26 I think we see how the top of the cells get pressed to the bottom of the cell.

The famous "tab-less" picture on the right was disclosed on Battery Day. I believe Tesla is pressing the continuous metal surface of electrodes to the can surface, creating good contact.
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Tesla's goal with releasing this video was clearly recruitment - as can be seen in the final frames of the video. 🙂
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𝐓𝐋;𝐃𝐖: this video IMO demonstrates that Tesla's Kato Road facility is a full scale cell production pilot line & factory that is far more ahead in commercializing & scaling their new cell technologies than the "R&D project" impression @elonmusk gave on Battery Day. 😉

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More from @truth_tesla

29 Dec 20
The idea of an "X" holding company for SpaceX & Tesla was floated by Elon 3.5 years ago already.

With SpaceX valued $60b+ and TSLA valued $600b+, owning X could give retail investors an initial 90% stake in Tesla, 9% stake in SpaceX/Starlink and a 1% stake in Neuralink/Boring.
The initial "value split" between the companies would be determined by the "X" shares issued to existing TSLA, SpaceX and Boring/Neuralink shareholders - subject to shareholder approval of all affected companies.
But after that initial step, owning shares of X means combined ownership of all those companies.

So if say Tesla value rises from $0.6t to $2t, while SpaceX value rises from $0.06t to $1t - ex-TSLA investors will benefit from the combined market cap of $3t - a 50% upside.
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec 20
1/

The biggest challenge for Apple to compete with Tesla is organizational: right now almost all innovation happens at Apple HQ with annual releases, the hardware supply chain is tightly controlled but low-innovation & low-cost.
2/

This works well for consumer electronics, where owning the latest iPhone is an annual purchase event, and where each new iPhone is designed from scratch.
3/

But Apple's annual 100% redesign cycle is fundamentally incompatible with Tesla's approach, who in an Agile development method has made the entire Tesla factory agile & iterative, where most equipment runs the "Factory OS", part of their iterative R&D effort.
Read 9 tweets
21 Dec 20
Update: SPY has updated their TSLA weight to 1.69%, which means 3 of the largest S&P 500 passive index funds are done with their TSLA rebalance.

1/

It still remains to be seen whether the large after-hours seller on Friday was a genuine TSLA long, or a tactical short-seller.
2/

Right now TSLA is following a larger macro drop - the coronavirus-v2 scare that is affecting European markets.

The S&P 500 is down -2.1% - which does not yet include TSLA (will do on the open).
3/

This macro drop creates an arbitrage opportunity for S&P 500 benchmarked funds: The $695 inclusion price on Friday will be the basis for the S&P 500 inclusion, and with ES down -2.1% and TSLA beta 2.0 the 'index fair price' of TSLA right now is $695 lower by -2.1%*2.0: $665.
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec 20
1/

There's a valuable but under-reported aspect of Tesla joining the S&P 500 tomorrow: the decade long flight of capital from active funds to passive index funds and the massive, unprecedented, ongoing cash inflows passive index funds enjoy.

morningstar.com/insights/2019/… Image
2/

On the asset valuation basis active funds managed to grow in value, but this is only because of a bull market. The actual cash outflows from active funds to index funds & the arrival of new cash to index funds are massive: $200b-$300b per year. Image
3/

With TSLA joining the S&P 500 tomorrow, 1.67% of this ~$200b-$300b per year cash inflow will be invested into buying more TSLA stock - which is semi-permanently removed from the TSLA float and not traded again.
Read 14 tweets
19 Dec 20
The TSLA failed-cross plot thickens: 80% of AH volume, or about 40M was sold at $695.

The tape actually shows many 999,999 share orders coming through @ $695. Presumably OTC, where a short seller was willing to go short?

I think only ~7M shares traded after hour under $680...
I.e. only about 69m shares worth of shareholders were willing to sell to index funds in the closing cross, and a large short seller sold them ~40m shares after-hours for $695.

This explains the sharp AH "spikes" to $695 visible in charts that many commented on.
Here's a finer grained view of the market anomaly: lots of huge orders with hundreds of thousands of shares slipping up to 695 & filling there.

I presume these were the indexers buying OTC/dark, while the entity 'painting' the price moved liquidity back to $680 quickly.
Read 5 tweets
19 Dec 20
1/

What I expect for TSLA next week:

🟢 Bullish scenario: if there's a significant index buying shortfall as the numbers below suggest, then a post-inclusion rally might begin on Monday.
🔴 Bearish scenario: if that's wrong then @garyblack00's 10-20% pullback is possible too.
2/

The bearish scenario is weakened by these facts:

Any short term hedge funds driving a 10-20% correction had:

✅ 47m buy liquidity in AH to sell @ ~$680
✅ 69m liquidity to sell @ $695 on the close

Why didn't they sell? 🤔
3/

There's two main explanations:

✅ either hedge funds are confident about higher TSLA prices next week
✅ or the HF-selloff hypothesis was false to begin with, as explained by former large hedge fund quantitative equities and derivatives trader below.

Read 8 tweets

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