Hundreds of nursing home residents are dying each day due to slow vaccine rollout in SNFs.
CDC vaccine tracking page shows this huge failure.
We are failing to vaccinate the population where most deaths have occurred: nursing homes.
Thread covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
As most know, ~40% of all deaths in US (& other countries like UK) have been in nursing homes. kff.org/policy-watch/c…
As a result, nursing home residents were put, w/ health care workers (HCW), in top priority tier for vaccination. Great! But allocating vaccines to this group did NOT magically result in shots in arms. That requires huge logistical plan. Unfortunately that plan has not gone well.
Only 7.7% of allocated vaccines have been given, compared to 25.4% for non-nursing homes.
Why rollout has been so slow throughout US? Partnership b/w/ CDC & pharmacies (CVS, Walgreens, MHA: cdc.gov/vaccines/covid…) was supposed to make it fast w/ "end to end management"
Locally, it's clear to me that slower rollout in nursing homes vs HCW is b/c:
-Local public health dept was tasked w/ getting vaccines to HCWs; they worked urgently to get vaccines to hospitals & helped set up plans for hospitals to administer vaccines to their own staff.
-Nursing home residents & staff don't live at pharmacies, so pharmacies have to find way to get people to them.
-Some residents aren't able to provide consent (dementia, etc.) & contacting family delays process
This has meant that while HCWs have been getting vaccinated for 2 wks+, nursing homes are just starting now. Given huge surge in cases in CA (& elsewhere) this has lead to many preventable deaths.
How many? Crudely, 2.5K deaths/day*40%=~1000 deaths/day, nationally. Real # likely less due to previous exposure, but almost certainly 100s/day.
Note that we have already distributed enough vaccines (2.2M) to vaccinate every health care resident (1.2M) & most staff (~1.2M)! But we haven't put these vaccines in arms, so people are still getting sick & dying while vaccines for them are sitting in freezers.
-Some health depts saw these challenges & chose to give initial doses to nursing home residents, rather than HCWs, to prioritize this group. This has led to delay in getting the doses allocated to HCW to that group (HCW doses were still prioritized by delayed in distribution).
), these are all foreseeable challenges & given that vaccines have been in development for 11 mo, it would have been great to have had a plan & resources in place.
The new $8.75B in recent bill for vaccine rollout will help, but we can't hire large teams needed and set up plan in 1d. Thus, it's going to be bumpy going forward.
Vaccinating nursing homes should be a top priority. reuters.com/article/us-hea…
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New SARS-CoV-2 variant will outrun best control US states achieved in 2020.
W/out rapid action we'll lose race b/w vaccination & virus by much more than we are now.
Much faster vaccine rollout & spacing doses as UK is doing is urgently needed.
Thread.
Background
New variant of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in UK in Sept & spread rapidly since. Estimates suggest it is more transmissible with reproductive number R (# of cases/case) ~50% higher (see tweets in thread for details)
Will vaccination reduce transmission or just disease?
Do 3 vaccines w interim or final phase 3 results (Pfizer, Astrazeneca, Moderna) reduce asymptomatic infections & does reduced symptomatic infection imply reduced infections?
Thread
Background
Developing a vaccine for COVID-19 has been a goal since the virus was 1st identified in Jan 2020.
But what is the purpose of vaccines? Many, it turns out!
They can reduce disease, reduce infection, or reduce infectiousness, or some combination. nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Why does it matter whether vaccine reduces disease, infection or infectiousness?
Because it changes who we vaccinate first & whether vaccination protects friends & family of vaccinated person (herd immunity!).
Why do we exclude groups from vaccine trials (pregnant, lactating women, people w/ anaphylactic reactions) & then allow vaccination of them based on trials? Isn't this recipe for possibly very bad outcomes? Urgent remedy needed.
Thread nytimes.com/2020/12/11/hea…
Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine was just granted EUA from FDA. EUA does not exclude any groups, except children under 16. fda.gov/media/144412/d…
CDC met today & also recommended vaccination w/out clear exclusions for groups excluded (e.g. pregnant women). cnbc.com/2020/12/12/cdc…
But who was excluded from phase 3 trial? Many groups!
Pregnant/breastfeeding women
History of anaphylaxis
Immunocompromised
Those being treated w/ corticosteriods
etc.
What wildlife could be reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2?
New paper suggests North American big brown bats are not. Here's why this is important & why we need more studies like this.
Thread onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tb…
We still don't know the natural reservoir for SARS-CoV-2. Some similar viruses were found in horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus spp.), but the difference between those viruses & SARS-CoV-2 is large enough that SARS-CoV-2 may have different reservoir. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Regardless of where SARS-CoV-2 originally came from, many have worried that SARS-CoV-2 might be transmitted from humans into other animals that might be able to sustain the virus & transmit it back to humans.
Who should be vaccinated next?
1st batch Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is shipping & will go to HCW + nursing homes as it should. But next tier is debated (essential workers? elderly? pre-existing morbidities?).
Model suggests elderly for decreasing deaths but more info needed
Thread
FDA & CDC have given green light for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Supplies are very limited initially & transmission is raging so it's important to choose carefully in who to vaccinate first. How can we determine what is best? Mathematical models!
Pfizer's vaccine needing a -80C freezer is making it hard to get it to the most needy people. And shipping containers of 975 doses are making it harder still.
Short thread
Everyone is understandably excited about Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, w/ 95% efficacy against symptomatic cases (but data not so clear for severe infections: