Thread by @lxeagle17

🚨GEORGIA UPDATE 12/30 (TOTAL + VBM + IN-PERSON)🚨

Total Votes: 2,812,994 (+246,662)

Percent of registered voters: 36.4%
White: 55.5% (56.5% in general)
Black: 31.1% (27.7% general)
Hispanic: 2.2% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.5% (2.6% general)

COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 36.4%
DeKalb: 42.6%
Cobb: 37.6%
Fulton: 41.8%
Gwinnett: 38.5%
Chatham: 25.4%
Muscogee: 34.2%
Columbia: 36.8%
Houston: 36.5%
Baldwin: 37.8%
Fayette: 45.4%
Hall: 33.8%
Clayton: 34.2%
Forsyth: 44%

IN-PERSON EARLY VOTES

Total Votes: 1,916,676 (+206,210)
Percent of registered voters: 24.8%
White: 56.3% (58.2% in general)
Black: 30.7% (26.4% general)
Hispanic: 2.3% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.1% (2.0% general)

COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 24.8%
DeKalb: 27.4%
Cobb: 18.4%
Fulton: 31.5%
Gwinnett: 2.2%
Chatham: 15.6%
Muscogee: 23.6%
Columbia: 26.2%
Houston: 22.7%
Baldwin: 26%
Fayette: 33.6%
Hall: 22.7%
Clayton: 23%
Forsyth: 33%

VBM DATA

Accepted: 896,318 (+40,552)
White: 54% (53% general)
Black: 31.9% (30.3% general)
Return Rate: 65.4%

Requested: 1,370,531 (+4700)
Request Rate: 17.7%
White: 51.4% (51.2% general)
Black: 32.9% (31.4% general)
66+: 45.7% (40.7% general)

who's still requesting ballots?!

It’s hard to figure out what to make of yesterday. Republicans didn’t win it by the margin they’d have liked; the precinct model estimates that they won the in-person early vote 52.7-47.3, and that’s not great news for them, because it means they didn’t cut into the Dem lead.

Educated areas like Forsyth, Columbia, and Fayette all saw excellent drops, but they did not see what they would have liked to see in places like exurbs like Cherokee, which saw pretty poor turnout once again. Hall had a strong mail drop, but saw fairly average in-person turnout.

It seems that yesterday was as close to 50-50 as you could get in the vote, with Democrats winning it by roughly 1.3K votes per the precinct model (though there is a range/margin of error for this stuff, and so you should be careful when using it).

I still see no evidence they’ve solved their rural problem, though, and that’s what they’re going to look to fix. With one day to go in early voting, there’s some serious red flags in counties like Whitfield, Pickens, Dade, and others in that northern area.

The GOP have to hope that they see surges in the north, and it’s no coincidence Trump’s rally is scheduled in Whitfield (GA-14). There are some very, very serious warning signs for them; the decline in votes there is disproportionately high (h/t @thunderousprof and @geoboy)

On the Democratic side, Fulton saw an incredibly strong day yesterday, as it was the last day of early voting. Cobb saw a decent drop, but DeKalb and Gwinnett did not see the best of days, and while Clayton had a strong mail drop, it had a mediocre day in terms of in-person EV.

That said, remember what the Democrats needed to do today: avoid the GOP cutting into their lead much. And they did that, despite incredibly high in-person turnout across the state, and outperformed their totals again compared to the same day in November.

This is shown by @Nate_Cohn, and you can see that the GOP didn’t win the in-person early vote by as much as yesterday, and Democrats still likely won the day in net ballots despite having 10K less mail ballots processed today than yesterday (and almost no mail from Fulton).

With regards to Chatham county, I give up on trying to figure out when in the living hell they are ever going to process their absentee votes. At this rate, we’ll be in the middle of the 2022 GA Senate election before they open those ballots

I’ve seen a few people repeatedly say “I want to see higher turnout in Clayton”, and I want to make a point here:

Clayton’s turnout in the general was 47.6% compared to the statewide average of 57.3. Clayton’s turnout this time is 34.2 compared to the statewide average of 36.4.

It’s doing way better than it was in the general. Please stop looking at “is this county above or below statewide average” without checking how it’s doing compared to November.

The increased Black vote in counties like Clayton is a huge, huge reason the Democrats are currently ahead in these races by most estimates. Hancock is another sparkling example of this; it saw slightly below average turnout in the general but is now outpacing the state by 4.3%.

We will likely go into the general with roughly 31% of the early electorate comprising of Black voters, which is up 3.3% (!) from what it was in November after early voting ended. That is an extremely good bit of news for Democrats.

The precinct model is at Ossoff +1.7. I expect it to dip further today, maybe to 1.2, before rising to anywhere between D+1.6 to D+2.2 as mail gets processed. The county model is much more stable at 1.8, as it corrects for outstanding ballots.

See this for where our model currently thinks the GOP is with the task ahead of them

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1344710918798675969?s=20

Still at lean D. Today is the last day of EV and will be an interesting day. I'll try to have numbers up tonight, if the GA website gives us the data we need.

Special thanks to @joe__gantt, @thunderousprof, @dooraven, and the model co-creator @ADincgor; all these folks help tremendously with everything you read here.

And thanks to @ElectProject for the data in this thread.

SORRY GWINNETT IS AT 24.8! The delta from yesterday is 2.2 (it was at 22.6 yesterday)