Today saw just a touch over 30K VBM ballots processed, and it appears that Henry, Bibb, and Fulton were closed and Cobb stopped at 3 PM. Today was a *very* pro-GOP day as a result.
We now estimate Democrats lead by 184K in the races before the last VBM processing and e-day.
We now estimate Democrats lead by 184K in the races before the last VBM processing and e-day.
The breakdown was 57.6-42.4 for the in-person EV. The VBM processed today seems to have gone 62-38 by precinct margins.
Now, it's down to the last VBM ballots outstanding; my estimate is ~80K more VBM ballots will be processed.
Now, it's down to the last VBM ballots outstanding; my estimate is ~80K more VBM ballots will be processed.
The model is now at Ossoff +0.74, and this is likely to be as low as it gets before election day. From here on out, it'd be a steady tick up as VBM ballots are processed, likely ending at around a 210K Democratic lead going into election day.
Remember, remember, the 5th of November, because that's what this (likely) slow uptick in the model and Democratic totals is going to resemble.
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