@Nate_Cohn is right -- the early electorate is probably closer to D+13, as his tweet says, than D+6 (our model).

Here's the question: What's our model trying to do?

Are we trying to forecast the electorate? Or are we projecting the November electorate onto the current one?
If we're forecasting, we're going to be way off. We don't have the data for it, and I don't have the time to pay the $250 for the voter file and go through it and build a model by Tuesday.
If we're going to project the November electorate onto the current one, then some questions need to be asked.

As @Nate_Cohn so kindly explained to me, there is an individual level shift that doesn't show up in the precinct data, but let's think of it like this, in his words...
"Take two precincts, one 75-25 D and one 75/25 R in the general. Imagine now that Ds turn out at 50%, Rs 40%. Truth is D +11; your model would find D +6".

So clearly, even projecting the November electorate with precinct data will end up being a touch conservative on Democrats.
One way to account for this is to use Biden margins instead of Ossoff/Biden margins. Why? Because Ossoff lost a lot of votes due to undervotes, per @GarrettHerrin, which is not going to happen this time around. So we need a proxy to understand how Democratic the electorate is.
Biden voters being more motivated thus far than Trump voters shows up in individual-level data that does not show up at a precinct level.

So perhaps it's better to *also* report Biden margins along with our current Biden/Ossoff split, and we will be doing that.
The second question is what happens with margins in the model. My take is that nothing we do can properly account for this fully. We could, of course, add in race details at precinct levels as a proxy and go from there. That *could work*, but I don't know if I have time...
And even this, for example, really misses some of the movement within race and the turnout variation there.

I'll see if I can get it to work, but I don't know if we can account for this fully...
But one thing we'll be doing in the precinct model is adding a tab for what Biden margins would be, because that at least accounts for some of the party turnout enthusiasm gap that we see right now visible in the single-voter files and accounts for the elimination of "undervotes"
Beyond that, I can't do much more on this given the time and constraints we have.

The model will be up, and I'll continue to work on and update it. I'll see if I can get the race data to work, though IDK if it will. This is still work I do in my spare time, of course 😂
But we'll have to accept a few things on it:

1) It will miss out on some individual movement with data, which will end up being conservative on Democrats (fine by me!).
2) It's based off public and free data.
3) It provides a rough picture of November projected onto January.
Our model will likely go into election day predicting D+1.5 or something. This is based on some assumptions from November that may not hold, of course, but whatever -- it's the best we can do and it gives you a rough picture.

As always, use the model as a guide. Nothing more
Thanks for sticking with us through it all, y'all. Four more days...
And, of course, a huge thanks goes to the model’s co-creator, @ADincgor. And to Nate Cohn, @joe__gantt, @dooraven, @ForecasterEnten, and @thunderousprof for talking through the approaches.

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More from @lxeagle17

3 Jan
🚨RACE RATING🚨

Our final race rating is Lean D, and we will not be moving it from this regardless of any other EV developments. I don't believe the data favors Rs at all, but I'm not comfortable publicly moving a race beyond lean given the assumptions in the model.
We stand behind our model and our data, but there are implicit assumptions that don't allow for such a high level of certainty.

An example: what does turnout look like? We've never had a runoff like this, so we don't know.
Secondly, is it possible that election day skews more heavily Republican than 61-39? Sure! How much? IDK. I think the GOP would need a borderline miracle to hit the threshold needed right now, but that's assuming our model's EV split assumptions hold. And they might break!
Read 8 tweets
2 Jan
🚨NEW GEORGIA RUNOFF MODEL🚨

In the precinct model made by me and @ADincgor, we've now accounted for the individual-level shift observed by NYT/Siena, thanks to precinct race and party adjustments made by @joe__gantt.

Forecast (Jan. 2): D +4.25

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Okay, now, let's go into some of the methodology behind the race/precinct adjustment for in-person EV, made after a conversation with @Nate_Cohn. It's not random at all, and it is described in great detail in the spreadsheet, so I encourage you to take a read if you're curious.
Our original precinct projection weighted everything by geographic splits only, which captured a lot of the picture, but did not capture the reality behind individual voter attitude shifts, which did not show up in precinct or county level data. This fixes that.
Read 12 tweets
1 Jan
ugh okay I’m going to see if I can add in a VBM adjustment for outstanding ballots so if you all want to freak out about the model at least you do it with some more information
Christ almighty, we have the Democrats favored in a data-based Senate model that relies on zero polls and only on EV data, and they’re favored even before 80K votes that split disproportionately blue are coming in. and you all still are doomposting
If I make a model that’s quantitative, the qualitative bros talking about a rigged election and split tickets appear. if I make a metric that relies on qualitative interpretations of quantitative data like elasticity, the bros talking about assumptions and polling appear.
Read 4 tweets
1 Jan
The GOP had a good day today.

The Democrats are also probably around where they would have wanted to be if you had asked them after November 5 -- a predicted lead of >200K heading into e-day.
Once again, a reminder for you all doomposting that lean is not, and never was safe. Both sides will have good and bad days. That's why neither side is out of this race yet and anyone can win.
Yesterday was the only really, truly solid day for the GOP. And Democrats still have a 185K vote lead with VBM outstanding that should boost it to like 200-220K. That's a pretty large lead that really isn't that easy to overturn -- it's plausible, but still not likely IMO.
Read 4 tweets
1 Jan
Today saw just a touch over 30K VBM ballots processed, and it appears that Henry, Bibb, and Fulton were closed and Cobb stopped at 3 PM. Today was a *very* pro-GOP day as a result.

We now estimate Democrats lead by 184K in the races before the last VBM processing and e-day.
The breakdown was 57.6-42.4 for the in-person EV. The VBM processed today seems to have gone 62-38 by precinct margins.

Now, it's down to the last VBM ballots outstanding; my estimate is ~80K more VBM ballots will be processed.
The model is now at Ossoff +0.74, and this is likely to be as low as it gets before election day. From here on out, it'd be a steady tick up as VBM ballots are processed, likely ending at around a 210K Democratic lead going into election day.
Read 4 tweets
1 Jan
🚨GEORGIA UPDATE 12/30 (TOTAL + VBM + IN-PERSON)🚨

Total Votes: 2,812,994 (+246,662)

Percent of registered voters: 36.4%
White: 55.5% (56.5% in general)
Black: 31.1% (27.7% general)
Hispanic: 2.2% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.5% (2.6% general)
COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 36.4%
DeKalb: 42.6%
Cobb: 37.6%
Fulton: 41.8%
Gwinnett: 38.5%
Chatham: 25.4%
Muscogee: 34.2%
Columbia: 36.8%
Houston: 36.5%
Baldwin: 37.8%
Fayette: 45.4%
Hall: 33.8%
Clayton: 34.2%
Forsyth: 44%
IN-PERSON EARLY VOTES

Total Votes: 1,916,676 (+206,210)
Percent of registered voters: 24.8%
White: 56.3% (58.2% in general)
Black: 30.7% (26.4% general)
Hispanic: 2.3% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2.1% (2.0% general)
Read 23 tweets

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