Thread by @fab_hinz

In the light of these reports, a few thoughts on the missile capabilities of Iraqi and Yemeni militias and whether they could be employed against Israel.

https://twitter.com/TimesofIsrael/status/1345160383590326275

First Iraq. The range needed to target Israel from Western Iraq would be about 500-600km. There is a really high chance, Iranian proxies in the country are already in possession of such systems.

In 2018, Reuters reported the transfer of Iranian Zolfaghar solid-propellant precision-guided missiles with a range of 700km to Iranian proxy groups inside Iraq.
reuters.com/article/us-ira…

In 2019, Israel began to strike bases of Shia militias in the Iraq very likely targeting weapons that could be used against the country. jpost.com/middle-east/ko…

In March 2020, an Iraqi group named Assaba al-Tha'ereen claimed it had missiles with the range to strike Israel.

https://twitter.com/fab_hinz/status/1240452942039093248

Apart from the Zolfaghar, it's quite possible other missile systems have been delivered as well. The Qods cruise missile used in the Aramco attacks would be a prime candidate.

When it comes to Yemen, a range of 1700-1800km would be needed for a strike against Israel. The Houthis have claimed their missile systems now allow them to target Israel.

https://twitter.com/fab_hinz/status/1139832816730947584

So what could they use? None of the missiles we have seen in Houthi hands have the necessary range. The Houthis once used a Soumar cruise missile (copy of the Soviet KH-55) However, its unclear whether the limitations of Iranian engines allow for such a range.

A smuggled Shahab3/Ghadr-based system would be another option. It would be difficult to pull off but we have seen the Houthis use smuggled Qiams many times. So it's nothing that couldn't be done.

Then there is always the possibility of a system unknown to the public. There are indications Iran is running a secret development effort for weapons to be used (and in some cases domestically produced) by proxies.

Of course all of that assumes missiles would be used in such a strike. Drones might be another option.

Last but not least, it's wortwhile to mention that last year, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah himself has hinted at potential missile threats from Yemen and Iraq.

https://twitter.com/fab_hinz/status/1138877041615544320