I’m naturally a unionist.
But the problem UK now has is its govt has “othered” Scots (remember Miliband in Salmond’s top pocket? The Scots do) for a decade now...
....but if you “other” a nation but don’t offer them a way to leave this is an inherently destructive situation.
But the problem UK now has is its govt has “othered” Scots (remember Miliband in Salmond’s top pocket? The Scots do) for a decade now...
....but if you “other” a nation but don’t offer them a way to leave this is an inherently destructive situation.
2nd problem for the Union is while there is a lot of truth in the argument that breaking with a 60million neighbor will be economically costly for Scotland - there is a 450m Union + N Ireland waiting as ready made alternative.
This is a rare situation for independence movements.
This is a rare situation for independence movements.
3/
Independence referendums tend to fail due to 3 issues
1. Status quo bias
2. Emotional bond
3. Economic cost
Othering & Brexit have torpedoed the 1st two.
Suspect any future referendum will be fought almost exclusively on the 3rd point.
Will it be enough?
I don’t think so.
Independence referendums tend to fail due to 3 issues
1. Status quo bias
2. Emotional bond
3. Economic cost
Othering & Brexit have torpedoed the 1st two.
Suspect any future referendum will be fought almost exclusively on the 3rd point.
Will it be enough?
I don’t think so.
4/
Scotland is oft compared to Quebec in that Canada needed to simply see out the Quebec Indy excitement & then it’d drift away.
Problem is Canada is seen as both federally & as country a success.
The lesson for Unionists is they need to show success both in AND of the Union.
Scotland is oft compared to Quebec in that Canada needed to simply see out the Quebec Indy excitement & then it’d drift away.
Problem is Canada is seen as both federally & as country a success.
The lesson for Unionists is they need to show success both in AND of the Union.
5/
But the question is how?
Will Brexit UK really generate such a success that Scots actively turn their back not just on an independent Scotland but on the idea of anti-brexitism itself - which is fast becoming an intrinsic part of Scottish identity?
But the question is how?
Will Brexit UK really generate such a success that Scots actively turn their back not just on an independent Scotland but on the idea of anti-brexitism itself - which is fast becoming an intrinsic part of Scottish identity?
6/
Given above if I were advising govt I would risk a “smart loose federal unionism” that built in many advantages for Scots. Enough to deter swing voters.
Problem now is I suspect unionism depends solely on refusing a 2nd referendum - something that didn’t stop eurosceptics...
Given above if I were advising govt I would risk a “smart loose federal unionism” that built in many advantages for Scots. Enough to deter swing voters.
Problem now is I suspect unionism depends solely on refusing a 2nd referendum - something that didn’t stop eurosceptics...
7/
So this is the problem
Yes Westminster could continue the hardline & refuse Scots a way out but they have to continue that forever this seems unlikely - sooner or later they’ll be a hung parliament- so again if I were advising this is what I would offer the Scots...
So this is the problem
Yes Westminster could continue the hardline & refuse Scots a way out but they have to continue that forever this seems unlikely - sooner or later they’ll be a hung parliament- so again if I were advising this is what I would offer the Scots...
8/
A referendum but with an ALREADY EXISTING option of irrevocable full federalism versus independence.
It might not win but it would be worth a shot compared to current situation which resembles a horrifically dysfunctional family.
The current state cannot hold.
/ends
A referendum but with an ALREADY EXISTING option of irrevocable full federalism versus independence.
It might not win but it would be worth a shot compared to current situation which resembles a horrifically dysfunctional family.
The current state cannot hold.
/ends
ADD+1
A couple of people have suggested this is all quite patronizing to Scots.
Not at all, if I were a Scot its probable I’d vote for independence if referendum was tomorrow.
The thread was an attempt to cooly analyse the situation from a British/English unionist perspective.
A couple of people have suggested this is all quite patronizing to Scots.
Not at all, if I were a Scot its probable I’d vote for independence if referendum was tomorrow.
The thread was an attempt to cooly analyse the situation from a British/English unionist perspective.
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