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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
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2 Jan, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Some of you know already that myself & others are putting together a “project” for 2022.

It’s NOT:

1. “Another remain organization” - many fine ones already
2. A new party - already too many in FPTP UK

It will be more of a “mechanism”.

For those that are interested DM me

1/2
2/2
We’ll be starting 1st with a small group, moving on to our Social Media groups this spring.

We’re interested in your region & if you’re in a Political Party.

If you want region is OK eg “SW England” is fine - but if you feel able please tell us your constituency.

Thanks.
If I’m not following you let me know on this thread m and I will do.

We are at the discreet stage on this. But we want to hit SocMedia first with those interested.
Blimey - I appear to have somewhere north of 200 DMs inside 10 minutes.

Will be getting round to all of you soon..
My DMs and replies are exploding right now.

Somewhere near a thousand right now so please give me a day to follow back if I don’t - give me reminder with FOLLOW BACK in message if it takes me longer.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
2 Jan
I’m naturally a unionist.
But the problem UK now has is its govt has “othered” Scots (remember Miliband in Salmond’s top pocket? The Scots do) for a decade now...

....but if you “other” a nation but don’t offer them a way to leave this is an inherently destructive situation.
2nd problem for the Union is while there is a lot of truth in the argument that breaking with a 60million neighbor will be economically costly for Scotland - there is a 450m Union + N Ireland waiting as ready made alternative.

This is a rare situation for independence movements.
3/
Independence referendums tend to fail due to 3 issues

1. Status quo bias
2. Emotional bond
3. Economic cost

Othering & Brexit have torpedoed the 1st two.

Suspect any future referendum will be fought almost exclusively on the 3rd point.

Will it be enough?
I don’t think so.
Read 9 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
31 Dec 20
So one last go.

I will try to do this thread without swearing but it will be hard…
…and I’m afraid im really going to have to spell it out to some of you.

This EU has set out a way back to Rejoin…but many of you remainers still don’t get it....

- A thread -
2/
How many of you wanging on about Starmer actually read the treaty or commentary on it?

Of course it’s lousy. But in 1 way it’s good:
If you’d read it, you'd know EU have cleverly & quite deliberately set out a way back to rejoin..

...with big bl**dy lanterns to mark the way
3/
 The treaty sets up not just a framework for constant negotiations but 5 year reviews for “adjustment”. Anything is possible 2026:
Single Market, alignment up to 90% of EU membership – but one thing won’t be – Rejoin.
& that’s as 2024 election won’t be fought on 2nd referendum.
Read 12 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
30 Dec 20
I see alot of friends here are getting angry at various Starmer comments on Brexit.
I get its an emotional time, but with respect, alot of people arent thinking rationally right now.

No Starmer hasn't gone full Brexit - we need to look a bit more soberly at things.

A thread.
2/
The anger at whether Labour votes for the deal is one of the biggest, dullest non-issues of the day.

Its Johnson's deal - as he insists on telling us at every moment.
The ERG back it.
Labour's vote makes no difference either way.
I'd prefer Abstain - but I dont really care.
3/
Agonising over this is pointless.
A case can be made for all 3 options.

But ultimately its Johnson deal, the Conservatives deal and Labour MPs voting for it won't change that.
Nobody is going to come back & say it was Labour that brought this deal in 2 years time.
Let it go.
Read 13 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
27 Dec 20
1/3
 Nigel Farage attacks Brexit Deal...

Complains:
1. Northern Ireland "cut off from the rest of UK"
2. European Human Rights regime "remains in UK"
3. UK "saddled with a rotten fishing deal"
4. EU firms will "still be allowed to tender for UK govt contracts"
2/3
Nigel Farage further on "Boris Johnson's rotten deal"

"In regulatory terms, the EU will hold a Sword of Damocles over Britain with the threat of immediate tariffs if they judge that Britain is being too competitive".

"This is not what I campaigned for".
3/3
Nigel Farage today:

"This is most certainly not what Boris Johnson's supporters voted for in the 2019 General Election".

"These handicaps will not allow Britain to transform itself into the Singapore-style entity in a European time zone that it could become."
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
27 Dec 20
Prof @Cardwell_PJ is unnecessarily pessimistic here.

1. The fact that N Ireland students are joining ERASMUS shows that the program is flexibly enough run to take on non EU members - or even non-states.

This no real legal impediment to Scotland joining.
2. Immigration will surely be trickier. But is UK govt really going to sabotage this? Will they also make reciprocal EU students going to N Ire unbearably difficult?
No.
As for numbers - English is the most demanded language - so Scotland will have no problem attracting students.
3. Costs - a problem. But not insurmountable it’s a matter of will & priority.

EU as @guyverhofstadt has shown has many interested in supporting UK students in ERASMUS.

In any case ERASMUS is not significantly expensive due to principle of reciprocity & low transport costs.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
27 Dec 20
I’ve changed my mind on Starmer’s Brexit strategy.

His logic was sound - move debate to competency where Boris is weak.

But 2 days reading thru the deal it’s such a disaster even Brexiters will soon distance themselves from it.

In which case...no political reason to back it.
2/
I backed Starmer’s strategy on this for sound reasons:

1. Avoids default supporting no deal
2. Avoids Tories painting Labour as “last ditch remainers” to his deal

But the circumstances have changed.
The deal is much worse than even I thought.
Abstaining better course now.
3/
The reason I’ve changed my mind - is not because of remainers..but because of leavers.

Reading thru the deal - it’s clear to me there’ll be a Leave voter backlash on this.

In which case there’s no political advantage to doing the “disappointed adult thing” & voting for it.
Read 4 tweets

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