Thread by @jonworth

I wrote a 🧵 earlier about the state of the race to become the leader of the CDU (and probably become Merkel's successor as Chancellor of Germany)

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1345764479246753793

This follow up thread explores one aspect more deeply: the interplay between candidates and polls

1/13

So what's the starting position?

CDU is 3% ⬆️ in the opinion polls now, compared to their result in 2017. But that 36% is a good bit below the 41.5% they secured in 2013.

In other words: 36% is good, but not stellar.

2/13

Recall that the 33% from 2017 caused Merkel to be replaced by AKK as CDU party leader, so disappointed was the party with that result.

30% would result in some very serious questions being asked about the party's strategy.

3/13

So then, the 🔑 question: what would the appointment of Laschet, Merz or Röttgen do for the CDU's polling position?

And were it to go badly, what then?

4/13

Laschet is seen as the continuity Merkel candidate, but is neither as trusted nor as respected as she is. But his voter coalition would largely be the same as Merkel's.

5/13

Merz by contrast would likely take the CDU more to the right, and emphasise topics traditionally that were the strength of the FDP. His more conservative and populist stances could also appeal to AfD voters.

6/13

So a Merz victory would likely eat into the FDP and partially AfD support (possibly pushing the FDP below the 5% hurdle).

But any gains here would be likely balanced by a loss of supporters to the Grüne and the SPD.

The big question: how do these balance out?

7/13

Were the outsider Röttgen to win, the impact would be more similar to that of Laschet than of Merz. Greens and the SPD might fear Röttgen's professional pragmatism more than Laschet's ill defined folksy style.

8/13

But then the massive question: how much will the polls change in each case? And how quickly?

9/13

If we reach late spring and the CDU is still on 36% in the polls, whoever the CDU chose as party leader is going to be a pretty safe bet to be candidate to be Chancellor.

10/13

If it's 33% - Merkel's score from 2017 - then perhaps the CDU will stick with their man.

If it's 30%... then 📞 Munich and ask for Söder (CSU) to step in and save the Union from defeat.

11/13

The characters of Laschet, Merz and Röttgen will likely play a role here. Of the three I can least likely see Merz step aside, although the pressure on him to do so from CDU members of the Bundestag (who like him less than members do) could become immense.

12/13

But more than the individuals' reactions, it strikes me what happens to the polling numbers in spring is going to be the decisive factor as to whether Söder, or Laschet/Merz/Röttgen, becomes the candidate to be Chancellor.

Does the CDU panic? Or back their guy?

13/13