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Jon Worth

@jonworth

25 Dec

@campbellclaret

I’ve argued in depth why Labour ought to abstain rather than voting for a Deal: jonworth.eu/why-if-there-i…

@campbellclaret & @annaturley have made similar arguments

But it looks like Starmer is committed to the error... but what then? Can it be put right? A 🧵

Whatever Starmer hopes or thinks, the EU issue is not going to disappear from UK politics

The Deal isn’t good. It’ll cause practical headaches, esp at Dover. It’ll damage UK’s economic prospects

Short term Brexit helps drive support for independence in Scotland too, although let’s assume for now Scotland is still in the UK at the time of the next General Election - in 2024

Read 11 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

25 Dec

I wonder whether the "new variant" of Coronavirus was one of those Sliding Doors moments... for Brexit

Had the new variant not emerged, COVID spread in South Eastern England might have been slower

And at the very least lockdown not working, rather than the "new variant", would have been communicated as the cause of a spike

By so strongly attributing *everything* to the "new variant" (whether rightly or wrongly is immaterial here), other countries were rightly fearful, and closed their borders to the UK

Read 7 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

24 Dec

@dasvee

One thing that nagged at me at the press conference today (and not for the first time listening to Johnson recently) was his lack of comprehension

@dasvee was also wondering about this

It needs a bit more investigation

1/11

It was most clear today when Peston asked Johnson a semi complicated question - and then Johnson went off on a circuitous and plain strange answer you were just waiting for it to stop because it was too painful

2/11

"He's just a bullshitter" you might say

But I am not sure. Today I had the feeling he did not even understand what he was being asked

There is an emptiness to this version of Johnson that I find hard to fathom

3/11

Read 11 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

24 Dec

I think there is nothing more I can contribute now

When Brexit matters have been uncertain I have tried to map what happens next

But now we know what the next steps are

It's odds-on a text will emerge. The Council will approve it by written procedure (🇫🇮🇳🇱 Parliaments might need to mandate their Prime Ministers to OK it, but they will)

On 🇬🇧 side the Commons and Lords will meet 30 December to approve a Bill implementing it

There'll be some gnashing of teeth, and complains about P. 427 sub para 4(b), but they'll approve it

Starmer will likely whip to vote For it, and a couple of front benchers might resign

Read 13 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

24 Dec

If - as we now think - a Deal is to be announced at press conferences in an hour, a few thoughts

🧵

First, this was NOT always inevitable. There have been times when it looked like progress was impossible.

Second, this isn’t the “EU conceding at the last minute because that’s what they do” - because the EU hasn’t conceded. The outcome looks to be v close to EU’s opening offer.

Read 8 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

23 Dec

It seems something went wrong in the #Brexit negotiations this evening

But *what* exactly?

A 🧵

Yes, we have had "we're almost there" moments before

But we have not had one quite like this evening - where briefings from both 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 sources were indicating that a Deal was on

@AlbertoNardelli

Even normally level headed journalists like @AlbertoNardelli @tconnellyRTE @pmdfoster seemed to think it was on, or at least very close

There were even rumours of statements from vdL (from @georgvh) and that a statement would come from Johnson (from @dianayz & others)

Read 13 tweets

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