Thread by @_DanielSinclair

The warning Wuhan never gave us. Why don't we care?

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1345834339527962631

The message that is still not being clearly articulated is that the mitigations that have worked may no longer work under B.1.1.7 and B.1.351. Our mitigations until now have been based on the Wuhan and Lombardy data; now we have no clue what will happen.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1345834351850827776?s=20

We've been like "well, we know that works, & we'd do it if only it was easier"

Now we're at "what the hell is going to happen here" with London looking like this despite lockdowns 📈

It feels like the level of understanding in the U.S. ground to a halt with these memes from the Spring. The 50% difference in transmissibility may mean masks went from "evidently doing something" to "and i oop, exponential growth." We really don't know, & we oddly don't care

The NHS is activating field hospitals as London hospitals blow past capacity. Some of this is similar seasonality to what we're experiencing in the U.S., but more of it may be the result of B.1.1.7. If this doesn't wake us up, I don't know what can. reuters.com/article/uk-hea…

Following Scotland, England looks to be heading towards a Tier 5 & national lockdown. It’s impossible to imagine a true Wuhan-style hard lockdown, and over the next few weeks, the world will learn what that failure will mean. This is a turning point of the pandemic, for the worse

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1346106509802033153

Notably, Scotland schools are closing. The data is telling us that this is the safer option.

https://twitter.com/chrismusson/status/1346087632271511553

We have light at the end of the tunnel, but we are by no means out of the woods. This is already the most painful winter of our lives, and it will grow worse through the Spring. We knew a rough winter was ahead, but the dynamics are different now. We’re running out of options.

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1346071808739565568